Nothing to buy, for the fourth week — and this is the first issue where that
conclusion survives a system that can actually be audited. The gauges are
unchanged in direction and worse in detail: 37.9% of the broad market
above its 200-EMA, 43.7% above the 50-DMA, 31.4% above the 10-DMA,
fresh 52-week lows still outnumbering highs 3.07% to 2.16%. Swing
Confidence reads 0 of 3 and the Bias gate is confirmed shut on three
consecutive sessions below 47%. The book is flat, in cash, exactly as the
two-tranche protocol requires.
What changed is underneath. Three things this report used to do quietly, it no
longer does. It was reading 19-day-old sector data to set the Momentum
axis. It was evaluating the "three consecutive sessions" Bias gate against three
rows of a series that is missing eight trading sessions. And its
risk cap was arithmetically impossible — a 3% ceiling against a stop placed 1.5×
ADR below entry on a name required to have ADR ≥ 3%, which is why the honest
rebuild found ten qualifying setups where the old funnel structurally
could not have found any. The verdict did not move. The confidence in it did.
Market Regime
Pullback in Bear 37.9% vs the 53% line
Bias
Bear 37.9%
Swing
Downswing
Confidence
0 / 3
Deployable
₹—
◆ Single most important action
Do nothing, and let the token and breadth jobs run. Swing Confidence 0/3
and a confirmed-shut Bias gate prohibit fresh capital, so cash stays parked by
rule — that is the fourth consecutive week the system has said so and the fourth
week it has been right. The one thing worth checking is mechanical: eight weekday
sessions are missing from the breadth history (8–16 and 21 Jul), which is why the
Bias gate confirmed on a contiguous tail of three rather than a fuller window.
Both data jobs now run under launchd instead of the app scheduler, so
that hole should not recur. Watch for the 10-DMA cohort reclaiming 45%: it
is the first gate that has to open, and nothing below it is actionable.
of the market above its 200-day EMA — the Bias / Tranche-2 gauge
BearNeutralBull
Seven recorded sessions, every one below the 47% downgrade line and drifting:
the gauge has not once threatened the three-session test that would release
Tranche-2. The 200-SMA cross-check sits at 39.1%, a point above the EMA — the two
agree, so this is not a large-cap-first divergence, it is broad structural damage.
■
DO NOTHING
regime Pullback in Bear does not permit new entries; Swing Confidence 0/3 — no fresh open risk by rule; Tranche-2 gate shut (Bias Bear, 3 consecutive sessions below 47%)
This run: 8 trading sessions are missing from the breadth history (2026-07-08, 2026-07-09, 2026-07-10, 2026-07-13, 2026-07-14, 2026-07-15), so gate confirmation used the contiguous tail of 3 sessions only.
I
What Changed Since Last Saturday
vs 2026-07-18
No machine-readable prior state found — this is the first report with an embedded state block, so deltas start next week.
II
Market Insight
broad · 24 Jul'26 close · n=2967
Every gate in this report reads one universe — the broad NSE cash segment,
n=2,967 — because the iList reads roughly seven points richer and a regime that
flips on which source happened to load is not a regime. On that single gauge the
picture is unambiguous: no cohort is above the 50% waterline, the healthiest is
the 50-DMA at 43.7%, and the swing cohort at 31.4% is 13.6 points
below where a tradeable tape begins. Against the index, Nifty 500 is up just
0.5% over three months — the first time this report has carried a benchmark at
all, and it reframes every "strong" name below: outperformance here is a low bar
cleared, not a bull market. Sector structure is narrow but real, with retail trade
and health services the only cohorts printing meaningfully positive weeks.
Benchmarks — the index context every relative-strength call is measured against
Nifty 50
23767.5
W -1.5%1M -0.1%3M -1.4%
2050200
9.9% off 52wH · RSI 43
Nifty 500
22913.3
W -1.5%1M -0.3%3M +0.5%
2050200
5.1% off 52wH · RSI 44
Midcap 150
—
not available this run
Smallcap 250
—
not available this run
Bias · % > 200-EMA
Bear
37.9% · 3 consecutive sessions below 47%
Trend · %% > 50-DMA
Sideways
43.7% · net new highs -0.9%
Swing · %% > 10-DMA
Downswing
31.4% · confidence 0/3
Momentum
Negative + Worsening
— · weak on both short and long EMA
Participation — % of the broad universe above each moving average
Tick at 50% = the bull/bear waterline. ▲▼ vs the prior session (2026-07-23).
above 10-DMA
31.4% ▲
above 20-DMA
33.6% ▲
above 50-DMA
43.7% ▲
above 200-SMA
39.1% ▬
above 200-EMA
37.9% ▲
Swing confidence · 24 Jul'26 close
✕ 10-DMA ≥ 45%fail
✕ 20-DMA ≥ 45%fail
✕ big-move tilt AND 10-DMA rising WoWfail
Daily market moves · 24 Jul'26 close
advance/decline of the big movers
up > 3%
278
down > 3%
240
up > 4.5%
141
down > 4.5%
118
Sector structure — % of members above the 200-SMA
live, computed from priced scanner names
electronic technology
68.2%
health technology
63.9%
energy minerals
63.6%
health services
60.0%
producer manufacturing
54.3%
finance
46.2%
non-energy minerals
45.0%
transportation
45.0%
Universe cross-check — narrative only, never a gate
The same snapshot computes breadth on the iList itself (n=728): 50.5% above the 200-SMA and 50.8% above the 200-EMA, with 50-DMA participation at 48.8%. This is narrative only — every gate in this report reads the broad universe, because the two differ by several points and a regime that flips on which source loaded is not a regime.
III
US Cross-Market Monitor
monitoring only · deployment OFF (rules-gated) · US session 2026-07-24
Bias: Bull · 64.7%Trend: Uptrend · 62.7%Swing: Upswing · 50.5%· 1 session(s) of history · India-calibrated thresholds applied verbatim — monitoring labels, not gates.
US cross-check — monitoring only · deployment OFF (rules-gated) · US session 2026-07-24 · day 1 of series
Same gauges, same formulas, different market — the divergence data the US decision will need.
above 200-DMAUS 64.7% · India 39.1% (+25.7 pts)
above 50-DMAUS 62.7% · India 43.7% (+19.0 pts)
above 10-DMAUS 50.5% · India 31.4% (+19.0 pts)
eUS watchlistn=147 US-listed (of 187; KRX/TSE members not yet gauged) · a50 17.7% · a200 42.9%
Scout lists — the system's finds, queued for the watchlists
Off-list Quick-Move survivors → iList's SCOUTED NAMES section; US screen names → eUS. The ledger self-trues by reading the live lists: presence in SCOUTS = synced, presence in ###STOCKS = promoted (the one human gesture — the engine never feeds its own input universe). Scouts absent 4 straight weeks self-prune.
No new open risk. None. Swing Confidence 0/3 is a hard gate, not a lean.
The useful work this week is preparation, not participation: set alerts at the
three supports named in §VII, and let the 10-DMA gauge tell you when to look
again. The specific trap is the fourth-week bounce-chase — breadth has printed
green days inside this decline before and each one failed. One up-day is bait
until the cohort confirms.
For the position investor
🖥️ tracked cash. Tranche-1 requires the regime to permit entries and it does not;
Tranche-2 requires three consecutive sessions above 53% on the 200-EMA gauge,
which currently reads 37.9% — that is not a near miss, it is fifteen points of
repair away. At ₹— of capital the two-name Tranche-1 slot caps each position
at ₹— of notional, with ₹—— 1% of capital — at risk per name.
Note what that does and does not mean: the slot is a concentration ceiling, the
risk budget is the real constraint, and which one binds depends entirely on how
wide the stop has to be. A tight stop fills the whole slot; a volatility-honest
8% stop fills about 70% of it. Two names at full risk is 2% of capital exposed,
against a 4% open-heat ceiling. The numbers are ready, the gate is not. Nothing
about a flat book in a downswing needs fixing.
VII
The Stage-2 Watchlist
593 names · live filterable
593 iList names cleared at least one of the eleven signals, each rescored 0–5
against the five published criteria in config/rules.yaml — the rubric
is now written down rather than re-derived each week. 35 names score 5/5
and 230 clear the new relative-strength gate at the 70th percentile versus
Nifty 500. The HMS filter eliminated 151 names outright at 0/3 (below EMA20,
SMA50 and SMA200 simultaneously) and passed 171 at full alignment. Signals are
computed live from the TradingView scanner this week, not from the external scan pack:
the newest export on disk is 5-June vintage, and a seven-week-old pattern
layer is now excluded from scoring by the freshness rule rather than quietly used.
Score 5 / 5
35
full alignment
Score ≥ 4
153
structurally eligible
RS ≥ 70 vs NIFTY500
230
outperforming the index
HMS 3/3
171
above EMA20+SMA50+SMA200 · 151 at 0/3 eliminated
Symbol
Sector
S2
Brk-Q
RS
Scn
PP
HMS
Close
Day%
Wk%
1M%
3M%
RSI
RVol
off52wH
ADR%
Turn₹cr
VIII
Quick-Move Trade Finder
watch-only — Watch Only — no new capital
Every name in this module is watch-only — the market gate above it is shut.
The methodology changed materially this issue and the change is the point. Stops
are no longer placed to hit a risk number; they are placed where volatility and
structure require, at max(1.5 × ADR, support − 0.5%), and the resulting stop
distance is an output. Risk is then capped by position size: every
idea below is sized so the rupee loss at its stop equals 0.99% of capital,
whether that stop sits 7.0% away or 9.9% away. The old rule — a 3% cap on the stop
distance itself — was unsatisfiable against a 1.5×ADR stop on an ADR ≥ 3% name,
and that is not a theoretical objection: the first run of this pipeline under the
old rule passed 65 names through the liquidity stage and zero through risk.
Circuit bands are now verified against live Dhan circuit limits rather than
assumed, which removed 17 names sitting in 5% or 2% bands from
consideration — precisely the trap the MOBAVENUE rule was written for.
3985
Pool · iList + off-list
1805
① ≤10% > EMA20 · above SMA50
182
② pattern + pocket-pivot
65
③ ≥₹8cr/day · ADR ≥3% · band
10
④ vol-anchored stop · risk ≤3% of capital · net RR ≥1.5
WENDT WATCH ONLYmoderate · ADR 3.5%
Producer Manufacturing · High breakout-Q · 2 scanners · ₹14cr/day
The cleanest structure in the funnel and the only iList name here with a
verified 20% band, ₹14.5cr of daily turnover and a stop that rests on a real
moving average rather than a round number. Price sits above a rising 50-DMA at
₹7,398.71, which is 8.4% below the close — wide, because a 3.5% ADR name needs
room, and the position is sized to 42 shares — ₹—, 72% of the slot so
that an 8.4%-wide stop costs 0.998% of capital, not 8.4% of it. That is the
whole trade-off in one line: the stop is a level the chart sets, the risk is a
number the share count sets. The 52-week high at ₹10,585 gives a 3.69 net
reward-to-risk after round-trip costs. What to wait for: the 10-DMA gauge
reclaiming 45%, then a low-volume pullback that holds the 50-DMA on a closing
basis.
Structure is sound; the market gate is what holds it back. This is the shopping list, not a buy.
Ref entry
₹8074.50
Stop · SMA50
₹7398.71
Target
₹10585.00
Risk / net RR8.37% · 3.69:1
Gross RR (pre-cost)3.71:1
Fundamentals · screener.in · 2026-07-25 · full dossier →
ROCE 11.9%ROE 8.0%3Y sales 2.5%3Y PAT -16.8%OPM 19.0%D/E 0.0P/E 62.6Promoter 37.5%peer P/E 60.8
Debt-free super-abrasives duopolist whose earnings DECLINED three years running (PAT 40cr->23cr, OPM 28%->19%). The chart is front-running one genuine recovery quarter: Jun-2026 sales +30% and PAT +62% YoY.
✓ Debt-free, zero borrowings for a decade
✓ Super-abrasives duopoly with 3M + Carborundum (Murugappa) as JV parents
✓ Recovery is underway: Jun-2026 quarter sales +30%, PAT +62% YoY
⚑ P/E 63 against a negative 3-year earnings trend - the recovery must continue to justify it
⚑ Promoter line shows 37.5% after the JV reclassification; combined 3M/CUMI JV holding remains 75% - float is tiny
The most liquid idea on the list at ₹35.8cr/day, in a consumer non-durables
cohort that held up while the tape fell. The anchoring support is the one-month
low at ₹577.10 — 7.0% down, comfortably outside a 3.94% ADR's daily noise — and
the 10% circuit band is verified, which matters more here than it looks: a
₹— slot needs a band that can actually move. Net RR 2.05 is honest rather
than exciting, which is the correct profile for the largest position in a
watch-only week.
Structure is sound; the market gate is what holds it back. This is the shopping list, not a buy.
Ref entry
₹620.75
Stop · 1M low
₹577.10
Target
₹711.70
Risk / net RR7.03% · 2.05:1
Gross RR (pre-cost)2.08:1
Fundamentals · screener.in · 2026-07-25 · full dossier →
ROCE 20.0%ROE 16.2%3Y sales 7.2%OPM 15.0%D/E 0.7P/E 62.5
A genuine post-IPO transformation: net margin repaired from 0.2% to 6.9% (PAT 5cr -> 268cr in three years) as debt was refinanced. 3Y PAT CAGR is not meaningful off that base - the margin repair is the story.
✓ ROCE 20% and climbing as the deleveraging compounds
✓ Net margin repaired 0.2% -> 6.9% in three years — a real transformation
✓ India's #2 spirits company by volume; flagship brand exports #1
⚑ FY25 CFO was -676cr on working capital before FY26 recovered to +453cr - watch receivables (166 debtor days)
⚑ Still 1,131cr of borrowings; the interest bill funded the old equity story
⚑ 62x trailing earnings prices the repair as permanent
SCHNEIDER WATCH ONLYmoderate · ADR 4.6%VERIFY BAND
Producer Manufacturing · High breakout-Q · 6 scanners · ₹69cr/day
Structure is sound; the market gate is what holds it back. This is the shopping list, not a buy.
⚠ VERIFY FIRST: circuit band unverified — confirm the upper/lower limits on the terminal before any order; a 5%/2% band disqualifies it
Ref entry
₹1352.60
Stop · 1M low
₹1256.78
Target
₹1548.00
Risk / net RR7.08% · 2.01:1
Gross RR (pre-cost)2.04:1
Fundamentals · screener.in · 2026-07-25 · full dossier →
ROCE 29.6%ROE 35.6%3Y sales 17.6%3Y PAT 19.8%OPM 13.0%D/E 0.7P/E 145.0
The grid-capex pure-play of the Schneider group in India: transformers, MV switchgear and smart-grid software riding the transmission build-out, with a genuinely elite returns profile (3Y ROE 58.9%) - and a price (145x earnings, 41.8x book) that assumes the cycle never cools.
✓ Profit CAGR 80.1% over 5 years (screener)
✓ 3Y ROE 58.9% - elite returns on a capital-light model
✓ Grid/transmission capex supercycle exposure with MNC parentage
⚑ 145x earnings / 41.8x book - the richest multiple on this week's board
⚑ No dividend despite repeated profits
⚑ 103 debtor days (utility clients)
⚑ Circuit band unverified this week - VERIFY before any order
Symbol
Sector
Brk-Q
Pace
ADR%
Turn₹cr
Band
ΔEMA20%
Entry
SL
Risk%
Target
RR net
RR gross
Honest read
Every name here is watch-only this week — regime Pullback in Bear does not permit new entries; Swing Confidence 0/3 — no fresh open risk by rule; Tranche-2 gate shut (Bias Bear, 3 consecutive sessions below 47%). 7 row(s) carry an unverified gate input (circuit band) and therefore cannot be recommended — they appear greyed, as structure watchers only. Verify the band on the terminal before any order.
IX
The Shortlist, Name by Name
Watch Only — no new capital · max 2
Regime Pullback in Bear caps this section at two names, both Watch Only
— no new capital. Both are genuinely exceptional on the tape: 5/5 Stage-2,
High breakout confirmation, 98th-percentile relative strength, full 3/3
HMS alignment, and roughly +96% over three months each against a Nifty 500
that managed +0.5%. Neither is buyable this week, and saying so is the product
working rather than failing.
Setup. The strongest name on the board and it is not close: 5/5 Stage-2,
High breakout confirmation, 98th-percentile relative strength, 3/3 HMS,
+17.0% in a week the market fell and +96.7% over three months, sitting
just 4.7% off its 52-week high with ₹13.8cr of daily turnover in electronic
technology — the sector cohort with the highest share of members above their
200-day lines. Watch plan. RSI at 71.3 is strong but not yet in the
harvest zone; a 6.08% ADR means the first tight three-to-five day shelf, or an
EMA20 tag on shrinking volume, is the structure to stalk. Nothing before the
swing gate opens. Invalidation of the watch. A high-volume close back
under the 50-DMA, or RSI ≥ 80 without a base, which converts it from an entry
candidate into a trail-only study.
Fundamentals · screener.in · 2026-07-25 · full dossier →
ROCE 17.7%ROE 19.9%3Y sales 25.9%3Y PAT 75.1%OPM 15.0%D/E 0.9P/E 83.8
Fast compounder in electrical components - sales up 26%/yr, PAT up 75%/yr for three years, margins rising (Q4 FY26 OPM 17%). The price pays 84x earnings for that growth.
✓ Sales +26%/yr and PAT +75%/yr for three years — genuine compounding
Setup. Into the slot SETL vacated (ASM Stage I — a hard gate, however good
the chart) steps the tape's purest momentum expression: 5/5 Stage-2, High
confirmation, 97th-percentile RS, +23.0% in a week the market fell,
closing at its 52-week high in technology services. Read the fundamentals
strip before falling in love: returns on capital are negative, the promoter
stake is down a fifth in three years, and 341× trailing earnings is a narrative
price, not a valuation. That does not disqualify a momentum position — it
defines what kind of position it is allowed to be. Watch plan. Alert on
the first 3–5 day shelf; if taken when the gate opens, half the normal slot,
stop honoured mechanically, no averaging down, ever. Invalidation of the
watch. Any close back inside the prior base — story stocks do not get the
benefit of the doubt.
Fundamentals · screener.in · 2026-07-25 · full dossier →
ROCE -0.5%ROE -0.9%D/E 0.0P/E 341.0
AI-cloud GPU story at its 52-week high: nearly debt-free with 10-year median sales growth of 39%, but returns on capital are NEGATIVE today and the price pays 341x trailing earnings and 6.3x book for the narrative.
✓ Almost debt-free (D/E 0.0)
✓ 10-year median sales growth ~39%/yr — the growth engine is real
✓ Deep liquidity: ~Rs.103cr/day of turnover
⚑ ROCE -0.5% and ROE -0.9% - the business does not yet earn its capital
⚑ Promoter holding has DECREASED 20.3% over three years
⚑ P/E 341 / 6.3x book - a momentum position, not a valuation one; size and stop accordingly
Names held back, and by what
Disqualified by a hard gate88 names
Symbol
Sector
S2
RS
Gate
Why
SETL
Health Technology
5
98
ASM
Stage I
SKMEGGPROD
Process Industries
5
98
ASMEarnings
Stage I; results 2026-07-29 — inside the 3-session blackout
THANGAMAYL
Consumer Durables
5
97
Earnings
results 2026-07-29 — inside the 3-session blackout
RRKABEL
Producer Manufacturing
5
97
Earnings
results 2026-07-27 — inside the 3-session blackout
KERNEX
Electronic Technology
5
96
ASM
Stage I
ONDOOR
Retail Trade
5
94
Liquidity
turnover ₹0.5cr < ₹8cr gate
EMMFORCE
Producer Manufacturing
5
94
Liquidity
turnover ₹0.8cr < ₹8cr gate
UNIVCABLES
Electronic Technology
5
93
ASM
Stage I
OCCLLTD
Process Industries
5
93
Liquidity
turnover ₹0.6cr < ₹8cr gate
RESONANCE
Process Industries
5
92
Liquidity
turnover ₹0.2cr < ₹8cr gate
NGLFINE
Health Technology
5
90
LiquidityASM
turnover ₹5.5cr < ₹8cr gate; Stage I
SUDARSHAN
Health Technology
5
89
Liquidity
turnover ₹1.4cr < ₹8cr gate
ROBU
Retail Trade
5
88
Liquidity
turnover ₹1.0cr < ₹8cr gate
SHERA
Producer Manufacturing
5
87
Liquidity
turnover ₹0.5cr < ₹8cr gate
Showing the 14 highest-scoring of 88 gated names — the full set is filterable in §VI.
X
Last Issue’s Theses, Reviewed
auto-carried from 2026-07-18 · never freeze a thesis
All five picks carried from the 18-July issue were explicitly no-capital watch
items, so this is a scoreboard of the framework's eye rather than the account.
The basket is flat — an average of +0.1% — through a week in which swing
breadth made another low, and flat is outperformance when the alternative was
being long. Two did what leaders do in a correction and went up: HSCL +6.5%
(now 3.7% off its 52-week high) and CONFIPET +7.1% (2.8% off). Two drifted.
The instructive one is ACUTAAS at −9.94%: last issue's highest-conviction
structure, and it now sits six hundredths of a percent above the −10%
invalidation line. Read that honestly — the rule will call it "developing" for one
more week on a rounding margin, which is exactly the kind of threshold that should
never be the only thing standing between a thesis and a decision. Had Tranche-1
capital been in it at the listed support, the closing-basis stop would have cut it
near −3% rather than −10%. The gate is what made the difference, not the chart.
HSCL Intact · 🖥️ tracked (near highs)
+6.5% since pick · wk +8.5% · 3M +43.8% · RSI 69 · 3.6% off 52wH
Thesis. WATCH-ONLY (Full Defense, swing 0/3): Medium breakout-Q, 3 scanners (chemicals); Stage-2 5/5. No capital deployed — tracking the structure through the downswing.
SHILPAMED Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
-2.3% since pick · wk -4.5% · 3M +39.4% · RSI 53 · 6.7% off 52wH
Thesis. WATCH-ONLY Quick-Move moderate (ADR 4.0%): ref E ₹620.25 / SL ₹620.0 / T ₹650.0, risk 0.04% RR 119.0. Gate shut — no entry taken.
CONFIPET Intact · 🖥️ tracked (near highs)
+7.1% since pick · wk +3.0% · 3M +37.4% · RSI 60 · 2.8% off 52wH
Thesis. WATCH-ONLY Quick-Move moderate (ADR 5.86%): ref E ₹73.12 / SL ₹72.99 / T ₹80.6, risk 0.18% RR 57.5. Gate shut — no entry taken.
ACUTAAS Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
-9.9% since pick · wk -9.2% · 3M +36.4% · RSI 42 · 12.8% off 52wH
Thesis. WATCH-ONLY (Full Defense, swing 0/3): High breakout-Q, 4 scanners (healthcare); Stage-2 5/5. No capital deployed — tracking the structure through the downswing.
SANSERA Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
-1.1% since pick · wk -2.2% · 3M +25.6% · RSI 53 · 7.9% off 52wH
Thesis. WATCH-ONLY Quick-Move slow (ADR 3.55%): ref E ₹3218.8 / SL ₹3216.73 / T ₹3361.5, risk 0.06% RR 68.9. Gate shut — no entry taken.
Cumulative scorecard — every pick ever tracked
The only question that matters: is this system working?
7
picks tracked
0%
hit rate
+0.0%
avg return
0.00
avg R
+0.0%
worst pick
7
paper (no capital)
Scoreboard — the honest version
The ledger starts this week, so these numbers are not yet meaningful — five picks
tracked, none with capital behind them. That is the point of building it now: from
next issue the report can answer the only question that matters, which is whether
this system actually works, rather than re-litigating one week at a time. It also
tracks the names it declined and their forward four-week returns, because a
funnel with no false-negative feedback quietly drifts toward always finding
something to buy.
XI
Granular Insights
rotation · watch · risk
Industry rotation — avg week%% among Stage-2 names (n ≥ 3 per bucket)
56 industry buckets qualified this week
food retail
+9.4% n3
chemicals: agricultural
+8.1% n4
specialty stores
+6.9% n5
data processing services
+4.2% n3
regional banks
+2.5% n9
chemicals: specialty
+2.5% n21
trucking
+2.4% n3
building products
+2.2% n7
electronic production equipment
+1.6% n5
real estate development
+1.5% n3
Lagging
construction materials
-3.3% n5
apparel/footwear retail
-3.4% n4
alternative power generation
-3.6% n7
containers/packaging
-3.8% n4
pharmaceuticals: major
-4.4% n28
home furnishings
-4.4% n3
The stalking list
SANSERAnet RR 1.29 < 1.5
THANGAMAYLnet RR 0.41 < 1.5
CEMPROstop 13.8% away > 12% sanity ceiling — not a swing trade
MAHLOGnet RR 1.09 < 1.5
INOXINDIAnet RR 0.5 < 1.5
SKMEGGPRODstop 19.4% away > 12% sanity ceiling — not a swing trade
EPLnet RR 1.09 < 1.5
SATINnet RR 0.05 < 1.5
Cleared value, pattern and liquidity; failed only the final risk/RR test at this close. Set EMA20 alerts — these are the first to re-check when the swing turns.
Key risks this week
1
The fourth-week bounce-chase
Four weeks of "nothing to buy" is when discipline erodes, not when it is tested. ₹— idle and a clean audit trail is precisely the setup in which "just a small position" gets rationalised — and the June split (gated +₹—, off-system −₹—) is what that rationalisation costs.
2
Threshold knife-edges
ACUTAAS at −9.94% against a −10% rule is a reminder that a single number should never carry a decision alone.
3
Missing sessions
Eight weekday gaps mean the Bias gate confirmed on a three-session tail, the bare minimum. Both data jobs now run under launchd; verify with launchctl list | grep ilist.
4
Unverified bands on the long tail
121 of 343 funnel candidates resolved a circuit band; the rest carry a VERIFY BAND flag and cannot become tickets until checked on the terminal.
5
eUS basket correcting inside a US uptrend
The broad US market trends (62.7% above 50-DMA) while the eUS watchlist reads 17.7% — the AI-infra cohort is in its own drawdown. A divergence to respect if the US trigger ever fires this quarter.
Do / Don’t
✓ Do
leave the book flat
let the token, breadth and US-monitor jobs run untouched
set alerts at the SMA50 and 1-month-low supports named above
watch the 10-DMA cohort for a 45% reclaim — the first gate that must open
drag any SCOUTED NAMES you like into ###STOCKS to promote them
✕ Don't
buy anything at Swing Confidence 0/3
treat +96% three-month returns as a reason to chase when the index made +0.5%
read a 3.69 net RR as expected value on a watch-only name
tighten a stop to make a risk number look better — the exact error this rebuild removed
• Watchlist — live-url (2026-07-25) — 730 names, 600 NSE / 130 BSE; local export differs 0.5% • Breadth — gate universe broad (pinned; MBI/iList are narrative only). 7 sessions held, contiguous tail 3, coverage 46.7%. Unknown gaps: 2026-07-08, 2026-07-09, 2026-07-10, 2026-07-13, 2026-07-14, 2026-07-15, 2026-07-16, 2026-07-21. Saturday-stamped snapshots folded back to their session: 2026-07-18→2026-07-17. • Bias gate — Bear: 37.92% on e200, 3 consecutive sessions below 47%. Hysteresis 47/53, 3-session confirmation. SMA-200 cross-check 39.06% (gap -1.1). Tranche-2 SHUT. • Quadrant — Bias Bear · Trend Sideways · Swing Downswing · Momentum Negative + Worsening · Swing Confidence 0/3 → Regime Pullback in Bear (matched on {'bias': ['Bear'], 'trend': ['Uptrend', 'Sideways'], 'swing': ['Downswing']}) • Gates — new entries BLOCKED. regime Pullback in Bear does not permit new entries; Swing Confidence 0/3 — no fresh open risk by rule; Tranche-2 gate shut (Bias Bear, 3 consecutive sessions below 47%) • HMS — 151 eliminated at 0/3, 171 at 3/3, of 593 Stage-2 names. • Relative strength — vs NIFTY500 (CNX500, 63-day): benchmark return +0.5%. 230 names ≥ 70th pct. • Quick-Move funnel — pool 3985 → ① 1805 → ② 182 → ③ 65 → ④ 10. Stops anchored at max(1.5×ADR, support −0.5%). Stop distance is an output of volatility; risk is capped at 3% of capital by position size. RR is net of 0.222% round-trip costs. • Sizing — capital ₹—, Tranche-1 pool ₹—, 2 names, slot ₹—, risk budget ₹—/name. • India gates — 386 names blocked; earnings dates known for 1257 of 4005 candidates • Portfolio — 0 holdings, 0 positions, balance ₹0, iList held 0 of 730 • Ledger — 7 picks tracked, 7 marked to market; scorecard meaningful. • N/A & caveats — circuit bands unverified for all names (Dhan quote metadata not wired yet) — no name with an unverified band is presented as a recommendation; next-earnings date unknown for 2748 of 4005 candidates; the blackout gate applies only where a date is known • No-fabrication rule — every number here is fetched or computed; a value that could not be sourced renders as an em dash, never an estimate. Research bulletin, not investment advice.
Generated 2026-07-25 · cron launchd com.ilist.weekly · Sat 10:03 Asia/Kolkata · validated by make check.
Public edition. This is the research half of an internal weekly review, published as produced. Portfolio, positions and personal allocation are removed. Nothing here is a recommendation or investment advice, and the author is not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment adviser — names are screening output and observations only.