Last issue ended with a market knocking on the Transitional door: the Bias gauge at 46.8%, "rising ~1pt/session, the gate could open within days." It never opened. Twelve days on, the broad-market EMA-200 breadth reads 39.66% — it faded away from the line instead of crossing it — stocks above the 10-day average collapsed from 49% to 38.48%, and fresh 52-week lows now outnumber highs 2.43% to 1.96%. Every axis of the quadrant is deteriorating at once, and Swing Confidence reads 0 of 3 — the hard gate that prohibits fresh buys. The two-tranche protocol's answer to a gate that never confirms is written into the rules: the rest stays in cash — that is the system working. This issue is therefore short on ideas by design: two watch-only names, a funnel full of setups that must wait, and one housekeeping job (the Dhan token) so the machine can see your book again.
of the broad market above its 200-day EMA — the Bias / Tranche-2 gauge
BearNeutralBull
The gate needed 3 consecutive sessions above 50%. Instead the gauge printed 41.43% → 40.09% → 39.66% across the three snapshots since 6-Jul — three sessions below, trending down. The symmetric rule now applies: no Tranche-2, and any open risk stays at Tranche-1 size or less.
I
Market Insight
self-computed breadth · 17-Jul close · broad NSE n=2,965
Four axes off the self-computed daily breadth series (the PRIMAEGIS MBI snapshot is 6-Jul vintage; no fresh screenshots this week — sparklines span the three recorded snapshots 6-Jul → 7-Jul → 17-Jul). The story is one-directional: every participation gauge fell. Above-10DMA halved its June recovery (49.37% → 38.48%), above-20DMA collapsed 56.81% → 39.73%, and the Bias gauge slid to 39.66%. New-low generation (2.43%) now exceeds new-high generation (1.96%) on the broad universe — the first time since the June repair began. This is a swing-level breakdown inside a still-unrepaired bear structure.
Participation — % of broad universe above moving average
10-DMA
38.48 ▼
20-DMA
39.73 ▼
50-DMA
47.96 ▼
200-EMA
39.66 ▼
Tick at 50% = the bull/bear waterline (▲▼ vs 7-Jul). In the last issue two cohorts sat above the line; today none do. The 50-DMA cohort (47.96%) is the last one near it — if it goes the way of the 10/20-DMA cohorts, the next stop is full-defense confirmation on every horizon.
Decliners dominate: 343 stocks down >3% vs 206 up — and 151 down hard (>4.5%) vs 110 up. Swing Confidence 0/3: every leg of the test failed (10-DMA 38.48% < 45 · 20-DMA 39.73% < 45 · big-move A/D negative with breadth falling). By rule: no new open risk this week.
Universe cross-check — the iList is holding up better than the market
The same daily snapshot computes breadth on the iList itself (n=727): 53.51% above the 200-SMA and 53.65% above the 200-EMA — 13 points richer than the broad market — with 50-DMA participation at 57.5%. But its swing gauges broke the same way: above-10DMA 40.3%, above-20DMA 43.05%. Read: the watchlist's structural quality is intact (these are still the right names to be stalking), but nothing on it is exempt from the downswing. The MBI-375 calibration note still applies (curated universe reads ~5pts richer than broad on the 200-SMA) — even generously calibrated, the MBI would read ~45%, under the line. Data gap disclosed: the daily snapshot recorded 6-Jul, 7-Jul and 17-Jul only (machine offline 8–16 Jul), so "3 consecutive sessions" here means the three recorded ones — all sub-50, all falling, which the whipsaw guard reads as an unambiguous CLOSED gate.
Sector structure — % of scanner-universe members above 200-SMA (live, 17-Jul) · 40-week EMA ranking is 6-Jul MBI (stale)
energy
100 n8
aerospace & defence
100 n14
healthcare
96 n48
industrials
91 n64
bank
90 n10
auto
82 n22
metals & mining
76 n34
miscellaneous
73 n22
Among the 569 live-priced scanner names, aerospace & defence (100%), energy (100%) and healthcare (95.8%) keep the most members above their 200-day lines — consistent with the 6-Jul MBI's 40-week leaders (A&D 90.3%, Auto 74.5%, Healthcare 69.1%). Weakest: media (30.8%) and building materials (36.4%). In a stand-down week this list is for stalking, not buying — when the swing turns, leaders are hunted in the sectors that never lost their 200-day line.
II
The System’s Market Read
market → read
For the swing trader — stand down, audit, prepare
Swing Confidence 0/3 is the hard gate: no fresh entries at any size, full stop — not "smaller size", not "just one". The work this week is different: ① audit — if any Tranche-1 position was taken after 6-Jul, mark it against its closing-basis stop now (APOLLO closed ₹397.8 vs its ₹422.38 stop — that position, if taken, should already be closed; NRBBEARING ₹407.4 sits just under its ₹417 stop — if held, it is a closing-basis exit signal, act on Monday's close, not intraday); ② housekeeping — regenerate the Dhan token (expired 7-Jul) so next issue can verify the book, and re-export the 11-scanner pack + iList on Saturday; ③ prepare — the Quick-Move table below is a stalking list: set alerts at the listed supports and wait for the swing gauges to turn (10-DMA breadth back above 45% is the first tell). Cash earning nothing for two weeks costs ~0.3%; the average failed breakout in a downswing costs 3–5%. That arithmetic is the whole strategy.
For the position investor — the system just paid you
Last issue's plan was two-tranche by design: Tranche 1 at supports, Tranche 2 only on a confirmed 50% cross of the EMA-200 gauge. The cross never came — the gauge peaked at ~46.8% (MBI) / 41.4% (broad) and rolled over — so the protocol kept at least ⅔ of the capital in cash through a falling fortnight. That is not a missed opportunity; that is the June lesson (gated +₹— vs off-system −₹—) institutionalised and working. The structural picture hasn't broken: the iList still has 53% of names above their 200-day line, A&D/healthcare/energy leadership is intact, and 62 of 150 Stage-2 names hold full 3/3 MA alignment. When the Bias gauge does cross and hold 50% for 3 sessions, the plan re-arms automatically — the daily 15:45 task announces "🔔 TRANCHE-2 GATE: OPEN" the day it happens. Until then, patience is the position.
IV
The Stage-2 Watchlist
150 names · live filterable
Every iList name that triggered at least one scanner, rescored 0–5 on Stage-2 alignment with live 17-Jul prices. The pattern layer is 5-Jun vintage (six weeks stale — no fresh export found), so treat scanner columns as "was in a confirmed setup in June and still scores structurally today", not "broke out this week". Search, filter, sort; CSV export at the toolbar.
Score 5 / 5
16
full alignment (live prices)
Score ≥ 4
51
structurally eligible
Pocket-pivot ✓
40
volume-confirmed (5-Jun, stale)
HMS 3/3
62
above EMA20+SMA50+SMA200 · 18 at 0/3 eliminated
Symbol
Sector
S2
Brk-Q
Scn
PP
Close
Day%
Wk%
1M%
3M%
RSI
RVol
off52wH
ADR%
Turn₹cr
V
Quick-Move Trade Finder
watch-only — Swing Confidence 0
Every name in this module is watch-only this week — Swing Confidence 0/3 prohibits fresh capital. The funnel still runs, because its output is the stalking list for the turn: near fair value (≤10% above EMA20), a scanner pattern with pocket-pivot volume (5-Jun vintage — reconfirm on chart), ADR & turnover deep enough for a ₹40L round trip, and a support-anchored stop under 3%. Two weeks of decline pulled June's leaders back onto their moving averages — which is exactly where you want to find them when the swing turns. Set the alerts; don't jump the gate.
75
Pool · ≥2 scn · PP (iList + off-list)
71
① Near value (≤10% > EMA20)
57
③ Liquidity ≥₹8cr/day · ADR≥3%
15
④ Risk<3% · RR≥1.5 · all watch-only
SHILPAMED WATCH ONLYmoderate · ADR 4.0%off-list
healthcare · High breakout-Q · 4 scanners · ₹74cr/day
Off-list healthcare name sitting dead on its EMA10 after a controlled pullback — the 0.04% "risk" is chart arithmetic at the average, not a real stop; a practical stop under the recent swing low runs ~2%. Watch for a pocket-pivot up-day once breadth turns.
Ref entry
₹620.25
Stop·EMA10
₹620.0
Target
₹650.0
Risk / Reward0.04% · 119.0:1
₹ risk @ ₹40L (if gate opens)₹1,600
SANSERA WATCH ONLYslow · ADR 3.55%
auto · High breakout-Q · 3 scanners · ₹88cr/day
iList auto-components leader, 5/5 Stage-2, riding its EMA10 with ₹88cr/day of depth and only 4.3% off its 52-week high. The calmest structure on the board — first name to stalk when the 10-DMA gauge reclaims 45%.
Ref entry
₹3218.8
Stop·EMA10
₹3216.73
Target
₹3361.5
Risk / Reward0.06% · 68.9:1
₹ risk @ ₹40L (if gate opens)₹2,400
CONFIPET WATCH ONLYmoderate · ADR 5.86%
miscellaneous · High breakout-Q · 2 scanners · ₹22cr/day
iList smallcap holding its EMA20 with a 5.9% ADR — fast when it moves. ₹21.7cr/day turnover clears the gate with less headroom than the others; if sized later, keep it to a half-unit.
Ref entry
₹73.12
Stop·EMA20
₹72.99
Target
₹80.6
Risk / Reward0.18% · 57.5:1
₹ risk @ ₹40L (if gate opens)₹7,200
Symbol
Sector
Brk-Q
Pace
ADR%
Turn₹cr
ΔEMA20%
Entry
SL
Risk%
Target
RR
₹risk@40L
Honest read. 15 names clear the mechanical funnel — and none are buyable this week, because the market gate above them is shut. Three standing health-warnings sharpen in a downswing: ① razor stops at the EMA10 (SHILPAMED 0.04%, SANSERA 0.06%) are arithmetic, not protection — in a falling tape a real stop belongs under the swing low, which typically reads 2–3%; ② circuit bands remain unverified (no Dhan API); ③ the pattern layer is six weeks old — a name may have broken and rebuilt its base without the pack noticing. Greyed rows = support-anchored risk >3% — deeper pullbacks needed.
VI
The Shortlist, Name by Name
full-defense gate · max 2 · watch only
Regime is Full Defense · Stand Down (39.66% >200-EMA, falling · swing 0/3), so the defensive gate caps this section at 2 names, and both are "Watch Only — no new capital". These are the two strongest structures on the board — the names to know cold so that when the swing gauges turn (10-DMA breadth > 45% is the first tell, a confirmed 50% cross on the Bias gauge is the second), the buy decision is already made. Both carried RSI < 70 and positive weeks through a falling tape — relative strength earned the hard way.
Setup. High breakout-Q, 3 scanners (Darvas, CCI-D-100, CCI-W-100) — the strongest HTF confirmation combo — and a 5/5 live Stage-2 score, 3.2% off its 52-week high with RSI 63.8 and +3.8% in a down week. ₹158cr/day of turnover. Watch plan. Alert at the 20-EMA; the buy, when the gate opens, is a low-volume pullback that holds it. Invalidation of the watch. A high-volume close under the 50-DMA removes it from the list.
Setup. +13.0% in a week when the broad market fell — the single strongest relative-strength print among all 150 Stage-2 names — 0.4% off its 52-week high, RSI 68.7, ₹1,054cr/day turnover, 5/5 Stage-2. Watch plan. It is extended at the highs; the entry to stalk is the first 3–5 day tight consolidation or EMA10/20 tag, not the current print. Invalidation of the watch. A failed-breakout reversal (close back inside the prior base on volume).
VII
Last Issue’s Theses, Reviewed
auto-carried from 2026-07-06 · never freeze a thesis
The 5 picks tracked in the 2026-07-06 issue, marked to 17-Jul prices — a 12-day gap in which the broad market's swing breadth collapsed. Verdicts follow the standing rules (RSI≥80 ⇒ take profits · down >10% ⇒ cut · near 52wH & up ⇒ hold · else developing).
APOLLO Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
3M +62.7% · -6.1% since pick · wk -3.7% · 3M +62.7% · RSI 48 · 14.7% off 52wH
Thesis. Quick-Move moderate (ADR 5.68%): E ₹423.85 / SL ₹422.38 / T ₹466.5, risk 0.35% RR 29.0.
PANACEABIO Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
3M +58.4% · +2.7% since pick · wk -2.7% · 3M +58.4% · RSI 56 · 15.2% off 52wH
Thesis. Quick-Move quick (ADR 6.26%): E ₹534.6 / SL ₹529.17 / T ₹647.0, risk 1.02% RR 20.7.
DIACABS Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
3M +46.5% · +1.7% since pick · wk -8.1% · 3M +46.5% · RSI 57 · 11.7% off 52wH
Thesis. High breakout-Q, 5 scanners (industrials); Stage-2 5/5. Selective regime (Transitional bias); pullback-buy toward EMA20 as part of the two-tranche ₹— redeploy.
NRBBEARING Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
3M +43.2% · -2.8% since pick · wk -3.9% · 3M +43.2% · RSI 46 · 12.9% off 52wH
Thesis. Medium breakout-Q, 5 scanners (industrials); Stage-2 5/5. Selective regime (Transitional bias); pullback-buy toward EMA20 as part of the two-tranche ₹— redeploy.
ADANIGREEN Developing · 🖥️ still tracked
3M +32.8% · -2.3% since pick · wk +0.6% · 3M +32.8% · RSI 51 · 7.2% off 52wH
Thesis. Medium breakout-Q, 5 scanners (power & utilities); Stage-2 5/5. Selective regime (Transitional bias); pullback-buy toward EMA20 as part of the two-tranche ₹— redeploy.
Scoreboard — the honest version. 2 of 5 carried picks are in profit since 6-Jul; the basket averages roughly −1.4% against a broad tape whose 10-DMA breadth halved — the picks outperformed the market by standing still. None hit the −10% cut (worst: APOLLO -6.1%), and none reached RSI 80. But the real review is of the market call, not the stocks: last issue said the Bias gauge was "rising ~1pt/session — the gate could open within days." It didn't — it rolled over. The anticipation was wrong; the framework was right anyway, because Tranche 2 was gated on confirmation, not on the forecast. APOLLO is the discipline case: −6.1% since pick and closed under its ₹422.38 stop — if Tranche 1 was taken, the closing-basis rule has already exited it for roughly −0.4% to −1%; if the stop was ignored, the position is now teaching the June lesson again. NRBBEARING (₹407.4) sits just below its ₹417 stop — same rule, same answer. Lesson recorded: scenario invalidated ≠ system failure. The gate is the system.
VIII
Granular Insights
rotation · watch · risk
Sector rotation — avg week% among Stage-2 names (live, 17-Jul)
Technology Services
+8.7 n2
chemicals
+3.9 n7
transportation
+3.1 n3
Non-Energy Minerals
+2.7 n2
power & utilities
+2.4 n4
miscellaneous
+1.6 n3
energy
+1.1 n2
textiles
+1.0 n3
healthcare
-0.2 n11
consumer discretionary
-0.2 n13
Chemicals (+3.9%), transportation (+3.1%) and power & utilities (+2.4%) carried the week among Stage-2 names; healthcare and consumer discretionary went flat-to-red. HSCL's +13% sits inside that chemicals strength — rotation, not randomness.
The stalking list
HARDWYN, JNKINDIA, MTARTECH, SKMEGGPROD, VINDHYATEL, SAKAR, KERNEX, SIGMAADV — liquid, multi-scanner names within reach of support but with anchored risk >3% or awaiting a cleaner base. Set EMA20 alerts. The first low-volume pullback that holds after the 10-DMA breadth gauge reclaims 45% is the re-entry tell.
Key risks this week
① The biggest risk is boredom. Two flat weeks with capital in the bank is exactly when off-system trades happen — June's off-system losses came from precisely this seat. The gate being shut is a position; hold it. ③ Stale signal layer. Six-week-old scanner patterns scored against live prices — every setup needs a fresh chart look before it graduates from watch to buy. ④ Falling-knife temptation on the watchlist. The iList's structural breadth (53% above 200-DMA) will make individual names look "fine" while their swing breaks — the 10-DMA gauge at 40% says otherwise. ⑤ Gap risk in the data itself. Only 3 breadth snapshots exist for the fortnight (machine offline 8–16 Jul) — the true path may have been worse; it was certainly not better than the endpoints.
Do / Don't
Do — regenerate the Dhan token · re-export iList + the 11 scanners this Saturday · audit any post-6-Jul positions against closing stops (APOLLO's is triggered) · keep the daily 15:45 breadth task running (it announces the gate) · set alerts on SANSERA, ACUTAAS, HSCL supports. Don't — take any fresh position at Swing Confidence 0 · average down on APOLLO/NRBBEARING against triggered or near-triggered stops · trust a 5-Jun pattern without re-checking the chart · confuse the iList's healthy 200-day breadth with a safe swing — the swing gauges are the ones that pay or punish this month.
IX
Methodology & Metadata
• Run — scheduled Saturday 10:00 IST job, executed on time 2026-07-18. Prices are 17-Jul close (live TV screener); breadth is the 17-Jul self-computed snapshot.
• Tools used — TradingView public watchlist (curl), TradingView scanner REST (569 symbols priced), Dhan MCP + direct v2 REST (both 401), scheduled-tasks MCP, local template pipeline (build_data_v2 · prior_picks · gen v3).
• Framework files — reports/templates/: build_data_v2.py, prior_picks.py, report v3 skeleton (gen_2026-07-06.py adapted → gen_2026-07-18.py), scanner_manifest.json, breadth_history.json.
• Watchlist — LIVE public iList URL (priority 1b): 729 stocks (599 NSE / 130 BSE). TradingView MCP watchlist_get unreachable (desktop app closed); local file 6-Jun (stale, unused). 150 names hit ≥1 scanner. • Breadth source — no screenshots in session; MBI snapshot file is 6-Jul (stale) → primary = self-computed daily seriesbreadth_history.json (17-Jul: broad n=2,965 · >10DMA 38.48% · >20DMA 39.73% · >50DMA 47.96% · >200SMA 40.44% · >200EMA 39.66% · 52wH 1.96% vs 52wL 2.43% · up>4.5% 3.71% vs dn 5.09%; iList n=727: >200EMA 53.65%, >10DMA 40.3%). Series gap 8–16 Jul disclosed (3 snapshots only). MBI 6-Jul used for sector 40w-EMA ranking + calibration context only.
• Scanner CSV pack — 11/11 parsed from reports/inputs/2026-07-06/ (provenance: identical to the 5-Jun external scan export — no fresh Saturday export found in ~/Downloads; signals ~6 weeks stale). Archived to reports/inputs/2026-07-18/ with provenance note. 573-symbol signal table, 150 on-iList with ≥1 scanner.
• Prices / returns / volatility — TV scanner REST (ATR→ADR%, 30d-avg-vol×close→turnover ₹cr, Perf.W/1M/3M, EMA10/20 · SMA50/200 · 52wH). Stage-2 price coverage 150/150 (100%); unpriced off-list: AXISILVER, GUJGASLTD, MIRCELECTR, NAM-INDIA (4 scanner names unpriced — ETF/renamed tickers; none Stage-2).
• Quadrant — Bias Bear · Deteriorating (39.66% >200-EMA broad; 3 recorded sessions sub-50 falling — gate CLOSED; SMA-200 cross-check 40.44%) · Trend Sideways → Down (47.96% >50DMA; 52wL 2.43% > 52wH 1.96%) · Swing Downswing (38.48% >10DMA, fell from 49.37%) · Momentum Negative · Worsening (all gauges down WoW; sector panel stale) · Swing Confidence 0/3 · Regime Full Defense · Stand Down → shortlist capped at 2 watch-only; Quick-Move all watch-only; fresh buys prohibited.
• HMS filter — of 150 Stage-2 names: 18 eliminated at 0/3, 62 at full 3/3 alignment (live MAs).
• Quick-Move funnel — pool 75 → ① 71 → ③ 57 → ④ 15 — all watch-only (Swing Confidence 0). Best structure: SANSERA (E ₹3,218.8 / SL ₹3,216.7 EMA10 / T ₹3,361.5 / razor-stop caveat); practical stops belong under swing lows (~2–3%).
• N/A & caveats — Dhan historical unavailable → pocket-pivots are scanner-flag only, not Dhan-reconfirmed; circuit bands unverified; scanner pack 6 weeks stale; breadth series has an 8–16 Jul gap; MBI panels 12 days old. Research bulletin, not investment advice.
Public edition. This is the research half of an internal weekly review, published as produced. Portfolio, positions and personal allocation are removed. Nothing here is a recommendation or investment advice, and the author is not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment adviser — names are screening output and observations only.