A1 — Company Overview & Value Chain Position
Apar Industries (est. 1958, Mumbai) is a global industrial conglomerate operating across three synergistic segments: Conductors (power transmission), Cables (power + telecom), and Transformer & Specialty Oils (T-Oils). The company is the world's largest manufacturer of HTLS (high-temperature low-sag) conductors and exports to 107 countries.
Apar is a direct beneficiary of India's T&D capex supercycle (₹9 lakh Cr over 5 years under NIP), global grid modernisation, and rising conductor demand for renewable energy integration in Europe and the US.
Conductors: World #1
EHV Cables
Transformer Oils
HTLS / ACCC Specialist
107 Export Countries
India T&D Supercycle
Value Chain Position
▸Upstream: Aluminium + copper wire rod procurement (commodity pass-through)
▸Manufacturing: Conductor stranding, cable extrusion, oil blending (Silvassa, Jharsuguda, Umbergaon)
▸Product IP: HTLS composites (ACCC, ACSS), specialty cables (ADSS, subsea, HV/EHV)
▸Customers: PGCIL, SEBs, Adani, L&T (India); global utilities (USA, Middle East, Europe)
▸Distribution Oils: Direct to transformer manufacturers + industrial/automotive channel
A2 — Business Segments & Capabilities
⚡ Conductors (~48% revenue)
World's Largest HTLS Mfr+25.1% Q3
ACSR, ACSS, ACCC (composite core), HTLS — premium mix at 44.2%. Order book: ₹1,668 Cr (Dec-25). Volume CAGR 10.3% FY24-27E. EBITDA/MT target ₹40,000 by FY27E.
🔌 Cables (~30% revenue)
EHV + HV + ADSS + Optical+7.6% Q3
Revenue CAGR 26.6% FY24-27E. Order book: ₹1,690 Cr. Domestic +34.6% Q3; exports -44.3% (US tariff headwind). Won ₹153 Cr Kavach railway order. New orders ₹500 Cr in pipeline.
🛢️ T-Oils (~22% revenue)
Transformer + Specialty Oils+18.4% Q3
Volume growth 21% Q3. Auto oil +14.6%, Industrial lubricants +15.7%. EBITDA/KL target ₹5,500 FY27E. Naphthenic oils for transformers globally. 5% revenue CAGR FY24-27E.
A3 — Opportunity & TAM
India T&D Supercycle
India NIP: ₹9 lakh Cr power T&D investment over 5 years — largest global grid upgrade
38 GW solar + 6.3 GW wind added in CY2025; requires extensive conductor/cable networks
PGCIL capex at ₹20,000+ Cr per annum; SEBs accelerating distribution upgrade
InSTS (Interstate Transmission System) expansion: 500 GW RE integration by 2030
Kavach railway safety rollout: 35,000+ km cables opportunity
Global Conductor Market
Global conductor TAM: $20-25B growing 8-10% CAGR driven by renewable integration
US IRA (Inflation Reduction Act): Grid upgrade demands >500,000 MT conductors — Apar pre-positioned
Middle East grid modernisation: UAE, Saudi Arabia multi-billion grid projects
Europe: Net-zero grid reconfiguration driving HTLS conductor demand
HTLS conductors command 2-3x premium pricing vs conventional ACSR
A4 — Operations & Project Pipeline
Manufacturing Footprint
Silvassa (conductor flagship + cable): ~1,60,000 MTPA conductor capacity
Jharsuguda, Odisha: Conductor expansion plant
Umbergaon, Gujarat: Oils + specialty lubricants
Chennai: Submarine cables + EHV cable facility
Rabale, Navi Mumbai: HQ + R&D centre
Order Book & Pipeline
Conductor pending order book: ₹1,668 Cr (Dec-25); Q4 FY25 inflow ₹2,114 Cr
Cable pending order book: ₹1,690 Cr (Mar-25); fresh ₹500 Cr in pipeline
Total order book: ~₹3,400 Cr (2–3 months revenue cover)
9M FY26 conductor volume: +8.4% YoY (despite export headwinds)
Q2 FY26 conductor exports: +75% YoY — recovery underway
A5 — Financials: Trailing & Forward Estimates
Revenue Trend (₹ Cr)
PAT & EBITDA% Trend
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 6,388 | 9,317 | 14,336 | 16,153 | 18,581 | 22,000 | 26,000 |
| YoY Growth | -14% | +46% | +54% | +13% | +15% | +18% | +18% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 459 | 676 | 1,371 | 1,684 | 1,714 | 1,936 | 2,730 |
| EBITDA % | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | 160 | 257 | 638 | 825 | 821 | 1,000 | 1,360 |
| EPS (₹) | 41.9 | 67.1 | 166.6 | 205.4 | 204.5 | ~249 | ~339 |
| P/E (at CMP ₹10,022) | — | — | — | — | 49x | ~40x | ~30x |
* FY26E/FY27E are internal estimates based on management guidance and Nuvama initiating coverage (Jan 2025). Nuvama FY27E EPS: ₹339.
Q3 FY26 & 9M FY26 — Latest Quarterly Performance
Q3 FY26 (Dec 2025)
| Revenue | ₹5,480 Cr |
| YoY Growth | +16.2% |
| EBITDA | ₹483 Cr |
| EBITDA Margin | 8.8% |
| PAT | ₹209 Cr |
| PAT Growth | +19.4% |
| Domestic Growth | +30% |
| Export Growth | -11.2% |
9M FY26 (All-Time High)
| Revenue | ₹16,299 Cr |
| YoY Growth | +22% |
| EBITDA | ₹1,483 Cr |
| PAT | ₹723 Cr |
| PAT Growth | +26.6% |
| H1 PAT | ₹515 Cr |
| H1 Rev Growth | +25% |
Segment Q3 FY26
| Conductors Rev | +25.1% |
| Premium Mix | 44.2% |
| Cables Rev | +7.6% |
| Cables Domestic | +34.6% |
| Cables Export | -44.3% |
| T-Oils Rev | +18.4% |
| T-Oils Volume | +21% |
A6 — Regulatory & Geopolitical Landscape
Tailwinds
India NIP & PM-KUSUM: ₹9 lakh Cr T&D investments over 5 years
US IRA: $370B green energy investment → conductor demand surge
BIS (Bureau of Indian Standards) certification: barriers to Chinese imports for conductors
RDSS (Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme): ₹3 lakh Cr for distribution upgrade
Europe REPowerEU: Grid modernisation = significant HTLS conductor demand
Headwinds
US Section 301 tariffs on Indian cables: Q3 FY26 US cable exports -65% YoY
Aluminium price volatility: ~60% of conductor cost is aluminium (though largely pass-through)
China dumping risk in some conductor segments at global level
Domestic SEB payment delays affecting working capital cycle
A7 — Q3 FY26 Concall Key Insights
Management Commentary
MD Kushal Desai: "9M FY26 is all-time high across all metrics — very strong momentum in domestic demand"
Conductor premium product mix at 44.2% — targeting 50%+ by FY27E for higher EBITDA/MT
Cable export decline is transitory — US tariff situation being monitored; diversifying to Middle East and Europe
T-Oils volume growth 21% — auto+industrial lubricants gaining market share
New ₹500 Cr cable order pipeline expected to be billed in Q4 FY26
Kavach railway project ₹153 Cr — first foray into railway signalling cables
Strategic Guidance
FY27E target: Revenue ₹25,000-27,000 Cr (implied ~18-20% growth)
Conductor EBITDA/MT: ₹35,000-40,000 range as premium mix scales
Capex: ₹400-500 Cr over next 2 years for cable capacity expansion
EHV cable market: targeting ₹2,000+ Cr revenue by FY28
Working capital reduction: targeting DSO improvement (currently ~90 days)
Dividend: Maintained payout ratio ~24%; growing in line with profits
A8 — Balance Sheet & Fraud Filter
Key Balance Sheet Metrics (FY25)
| Total Debt | ₹585 Cr |
| Debt/Equity | ~0.15x (comfortable) |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~₹200 Cr |
| Net Debt | ~₹385 Cr |
| ROCE | 32.7% |
| ROE | 19.5% |
| Book Value/Share | ₹1,208 |
| P/BV | 8.3x |
| Working Capital | Intensive (DSO ~90 days) |
| Promoter Pledge | NIL |
Fraud Filter Checklist
- ✅OCF vs PAT: Cash generation consistent with reported profits; OCF broadly tracking PAT
- ✅Promoter holding stable at 57.77%; zero pledge; strong skin in game
- ✅Auditor: S R B C & Co. LLP (EY network) — Big 4 quality; no adverse opinions
- ✅Revenue recognition: Product sales (physical commodity) — straightforward, not service-based
- ⚠️Working capital intensive: DSO ~90 days; inventory build-up periods; watch for stretch
- ✅Dividend payout 24%: consistent return to shareholders; FCF positive in most years
- ✅Credit rating: ICRA AA-; comfortable debt levels; strong interest coverage
- ⚠️FY25 PAT dip (-0.5% YoY despite +15% revenue): margin pressure — under monitoring
- ✅Related party transactions: within group entities; disclosed; no red flags per public disclosures
- ✅Long operating history (since 1958); listed company; strong governance track record
A9 — P&L Deep Dive & Margin Analysis
Margin Dynamics & Levers
Conductors: EBITDA/MT is the key metric (₹35,000–₹40,000 target). Premium mix (HTLS, ACCC) drives improvement
Cables: EBITDA margin target ~11.5% — EHV/HV cables command highest margins; commodity cables are lower margin
T-Oils: EBITDA/KL target ₹5,500 — specialty/naphthenic oils are higher-margin vs standard transformer oil
Raw material pass-through: Aluminium prices largely passed to customers — revenue fluctuates but margin/MT is relatively stable
FY25 PAT flat despite revenue growth: One-off gratuity charge (new labour code) + US cable export headwind
5-Year Profit CAGR: 43.4%
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +23.8% | Commodity + volume |
| EBITDA | +30.2% | Mix improvement |
| PAT | +43.4% | Operating leverage |
| EPS | +37.3% | No major dilution |
| Stock Price | +86% | 5-year CAGR |
A10 — Valuation Analysis
Scenario Analysis (P/E Based)
| Scenario | FY27E EPS | Multiple | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (Nuvama) | ₹339 | 38x blended | ₹12,700 |
| Bull Case | ₹370 | 42x FY27E | ₹15,500 |
| Bear Case | ₹290 | 28x FY27E | ₹8,100 |
| Current Price | — | ~40x FY26E | ₹10,022 |
Nuvama (Jan 2025): SotP valuation at 38x blended FY27E EPS = ₹12,700. Bear case ₹8,100 is -19% from CMP — confirms disciplined entry important.
Valuation Context
P/E FY27E ~30x: Reasonable for 43%+ 5-year PAT CAGR company with cyclical tailwinds
ROCE 32.7%: Exceptional for a capital-goods manufacturer — commands premium multiple
P/BV 8.3x: Elevated but justified by high ROE + ROCE; asset-light business model (commodity pass-through)
Historical P/E range: 10–50x; currently at 40x FY26E — in upper band, not stretched if FY27 growth delivers
Peer comparison: Sterlite Power (private), KEC International (15x), Polycab (50x) — Apar's diversified model warrants 35-45x
A11 — Management Quality Scorecard
Key Leaders
Kushal Desai — Chairman & MD; second generation; 30+ years in industry; well-respected strategist
Chaitanya Desai — Managing Director; leads operational transformation and international expansion
Ramesh Iyer — CFO; strong financial discipline; working capital management focus
Promoter family: Desai family (57.77%); no pledge; consistent skin in game; dividend discipline
Management Quality Ratings
Capital Allocation★★★★☆
Execution Track Record★★★★★
Promoter Integrity★★★★★
Guidance Accuracy★★★★☆
Transparency/Disclosure★★★★☆
Overall Score8.5/10
A12 — Risk Register
🌐 US Tariff Risk (Cable Division) — HIGH
US Section 301 tariffs caused cable exports to fall 44.3% in Q3 FY26 (US revenues -65%). If tariffs persist, FY27E cable estimates may need downward revision. Monitor quarterly.⚗️ Aluminium Price Volatility — MEDIUM
Conductors are ~60% aluminium by cost. While largely pass-through, extreme price swings can impact working capital and short-term margin. LME aluminium at elevated levels increases WC requirements.📦 Working Capital Intensity — MEDIUM
DSO ~90 days is high. Government/SEB customers can delay payments, stretching working capital. Debt could increase if WC worsens. Cash conversion cycle monitoring essential.💹 Valuation Risk — MEDIUM
At 40x FY26E P/E, significant growth is priced in. Any guidance miss on FY27 EPS (₹339) could trigger de-rating. Bear case ₹8,100 implies -19% from CMP.🔄 Commodity Revenue Mix — LOW-MEDIUM
Revenue is heavily influenced by aluminium/copper prices. A crash in commodity prices could deflate topline significantly even with volume growth, creating headline noise.A13 — Catalysts & Milestones
Q4 FY26Strong Q4 results expected: ₹500 Cr+ cable orders billing + conductor volume recovery → confirm FY26E PAT ₹1,000 Cr
FY27 RampCable domestic business sustains 30%+ growth; EHV cable market share gains post-capex
US TradeResolution of US tariff situation for Indian cables could restore ₹500+ Cr export revenue
PGCIL OrdersPGCIL's ₹20,000 Cr capex program order flows for HTLS conductors and EHV cables
Premium MixConductor premium product mix targeting 50%+ from 44.2% — each 1% improvement adds ~₹30-40 Cr EBITDA
Kavach Scale₹153 Cr initial railway Kavach order could open a multi-hundred crore pipeline
Index InclusionPotential addition to CNX500 sector indices as market cap grows; passive inflows
PART B — Technical Analysis & Trade Setup
B0 — Stage Analysis (Weinstein Method)
STAGE 2 — ADVANCING
Bull Market Phase
52W Low ₹4,270 → ATH ₹11,648: +173% surge in 12 months — classic Stage 2 advancing phase
Currently at ₹10,022 = -14% from ATH; healthy consolidation / pullback within Stage 2
Long-term base: Stock consolidated ₹2,000–₹4,500 zone for 2+ years before the Stage 2 breakout
Volume: Strong accumulation volume on breakout; now lower volume on pullback — constructive
30-week MA: Uptrending; price above 30W MA = Stage 2 confirmed
Risk: Extended run (+173%) without major correction — some distribution risk near ATH
Price Milestones
| 52W Low | ₹4,270 |
| Stage 2 Breakout | ~₹5,000 |
| ATH (52W High) | ₹11,648 |
| Current (CMP) | ₹10,022 |
| From ATH | -14% |
| From 52W Low | +135% |
| 5-Year Stock CAGR | +86% |
B1–B3 — Momentum, Key Levels & Relative Strength
B1: Momentum & Price Action
Trend: Strong uptrend (HH-HL structure intact from lows of ₹4,270)
RSI: Likely 55-65 range after pullback from overbought — constructive for re-entry
MACD: Potential bearish crossover on weekly in overbought zone — watch for signal
Pullback Pattern: -14% from ATH is Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the full run — still shallow
Volume Profile: Strong accumulation below ₹5,000; distribution signals muted at ATH
Key observation: Stock needs to consolidate and build a new base post the 173% run before next leg
B2: Key Price Levels
| ATH Resistance | ₹11,648 |
| CMP | ₹10,022 |
| Support 1 (Fib 38.2%) | ₹9,200–₹9,500 |
| Support 2 (Fib 50%) | ₹7,900–₹8,200 |
| Critical Support | ₹7,500 (30W MA) |
| Preferred Entry Zone | ₹9,200–₹9,800 |
| Stop Loss (below) | ₹7,800 |
| Target 1 | ₹12,700 |
| Target 2 | ₹15,500 |
B3: Relative Strength vs CNX500
Strong relative outperformance: APARINDS +135% from 52W low vs CNX500 ~+20% — RS strongly positive
RS Line trending up sharply since mid-2024; any RS line pullback to support = re-entry signal
Sector context: Capital Goods / Power T&D is among the strongest sectors in India market since FY24
Peer RS: Outperforming KEC, Sterlite Tech, Polycab on 1-year basis; premium justified by earnings quality
Watch: If CNX500 corrects materially (>10%), Apar could see deeper pullback — manage position sizing
B4 — Risk:Reward Analysis
Scenario A — Preferred (Pullback Entry ₹9,500)
| Entry | ₹9,500 |
| Stop Loss | ₹7,800 (-17.9%) |
| Target 1 (Nuvama) | ₹12,700 (+33.7%) |
| Target 2 (Bull) | ₹15,500 (+63.2%) |
| R:R to T1 | 1 : 1.9 |
| R:R to T2 | 1 : 3.5 |
| Blended R:R | 1 : 2.5 |
Scenario B — Current CMP Entry (₹10,022)
| Entry | ₹10,022 |
| Stop Loss | ₹7,800 (-22.2%) |
| Target 1 | ₹12,700 (+26.7%) |
| Target 2 | ₹15,500 (+54.7%) |
| R:R to T1 | 1 : 1.2 |
| R:R to T2 | 1 : 2.5 |
| Blended R:R | 1 : 1.8 |
CMP entry gives acceptable R:R but Scenario A (pullback to ₹9,200–9,800) is preferred for better margin of safety.
Preferred Blended R:R
1 : 2.5
Entry ₹9,200–9,800 → T2 ₹15,500
Bull / Base / Bear Targets
BEAR
₹8,100
-19% from CMP
BASE
₹12,700
Nuvama Target
BULL
₹15,500
42x FY27E EPS
B5 — Entry / Exit Strategy & Milestones
Entry Zone
₹9,200–9,800
Fib 38.2% retracement / Stage 2 pullback
Stop Loss
₹7,800
Below 50% retracement + 30W MA
Target 1
₹12,700
Nuvama TP: 38x FY27E EPS ₹339
Target 2
₹15,500
Bull case: 42x FY27E EPS
Exit & Review Milestones
Q4 FY26Review: Revenue ≥₹5,800 Cr and PAT ≥₹270 Cr confirms FY26E trajectory → hold/add at dips
H1 FY27Cable export recovery visible; conductor premium mix >48%; EBITDA/MT >₹38,000 → increase conviction
Stop ReviewClose below ₹7,800 on weekly basis = structural breakdown; reduce position significantly
T1 TriggerPrice reaches ₹12,500–₹12,700: book 50% of position; trail stop for balance to T2 (₹15,500)
Bear ScenarioIf FY26E PAT misses ₹900 Cr materially: re-evaluate thesis; US tariff escalation = key risk to monitor
📋 Investment Thesis Summary
Apar Industries is India's most powerful play on the power T&D supercycle — combining the world's largest conductor franchise, a fast-growing cables division, and a specialty oils segment. The company has delivered 43.4% PAT CAGR over 5 years and exports to 107 countries. With India's ₹9 lakh Cr T&D investment plan and global grid modernisation tailwinds, the growth runway is multi-year.
Near-term US tariff headwinds in cables are a monitoring risk but the core India story is intact. At current P/E of ~40x FY26E, the stock requires patience — wait for a pullback to ₹9,200–9,800 for a compelling 1:2.5 R:R to Nuvama's ₹12,700 target (and 1:3.5 to bull case ₹15,500). The quality of management, governance, and business moat at the global conductor level make this a high-conviction hold in the power infrastructure basket.
ACCUMULATE ON DIPS
Entry ₹9,200–9,800
T1: ₹12,700 | T2: ₹15,500
Stop: ₹7,800
R:R 1:2.5 (Base)
Horizon: 18–30 months