Margin repair 0.2% → 6.9% netP&A mix 59.3% of valueROCE 20%62.5× prices the repair₹1,131 Cr debt remains
Market Cap
₹17,363 Cr
CMP
₹621
ROCE
20.0%
ROE
16.2%
P/E (ttm)
62.5
Revenue TTM
₹3,931 Cr
PAT TTM
₹276 Cr
D/E
0.65
Gross margin Q1
46.0%
Div. payout
56%
A1 · Business Model & Moat
screener.in · company disclosures
India's #2 spirits company by volume: 31 brands across whisky, brandy, rum, vodka
and gin. Officer's Choice is the world's 5th-largest whisky brand and India's #1 exported spirit;
ICONiQ White crossed 10 million cases in FY26 as the world's fastest-growing millionaire spirits
brand two years running. Listed June 2024; the IPO's purpose — retiring the debt that had been
consuming every rupee of operating profit — is the entire financial story.
Moat assessment
Brands + distribution — strong: pan-India route-to-market in a licence-raj industry.
Regulatory barrier — strong: state-level licensing makes national scale near-unrepeatable.
Premium gap — developing: P&A mix 59.3% of value and rising; Maestro JV (with Pernod alumni) adds craft/luxe.
Model quality
Pre-IPO: ₹3,000+ Cr sales, ~₹5 Cr PAT — interest ate everything. Post: PAT ₹268 Cr FY26.
Backward integration (grain distillery capex) targets +300bps EBITDA by FY28.
Working-capital heavy: 166 debtor days (state corporations pay slowly).
A3 · Opportunity & Recent Developments
cited news
Q1 FY27: revenue ₹984 Cr (+5.8%), gross margin +277bps to 46.0%; P&A now 59.3% of
value / 48.2% of volumes.
[source]
Guidance: EBITDA margin +~300bps by FY28 and +100bps more by FY29 via backward integration;
premiumisation targeting 50% of volume mix by FY28.
[source]
30+ global awards including Distiller of the Year (Icons of Whisky India 2026).
[source]
Record EBITDA reported at the Q4 FY26 earnings call.
[source]
A5 · Financials — 5-Year Trend
screener.in annual P&L
FY
Sales ₹Cr
YoY
PAT ₹Cr
OPM
FY22
2,686
—
6
7%
FY23
3,147
+17.2%
5
6%
FY24
3,328
+5.8%
7
7%
FY25
3,520
+5.8%
200
12%
FY26
3,880
+10.2%
268
15%
Sales grew only 7%/yr — the transformation is entirely in the P&L structure: OPM 6%→15% and interest down from ₹173 Cr to ₹130 Cr as IPO proceeds retired debt. The FY25 step-change in PAT is the refinancing, not a demand surge.
A8 · Balance Sheet & Fraud Filter
screener.in · FY26
Item
FY26 ₹Cr
FY25 ₹Cr
Equity + Reserves
1,744
1,574
Borrowings
1,131
901
Fixed Assets + CWIP
808
598
Other assets
3,041
2,767
Total Assets
4,171
3,546
Fraud filter
⚠️CFO volatility — FY25 CFO −₹676 Cr on working capital, FY26 +₹453 Cr — state-corporation receivable timing
⚠️Receivable days — 166 — structural to the industry, but the FY25 swing shows the risk
⚠️Borrowings rising again — ₹901 → ₹1,131 Cr FY26 — capex-linked; watch vs the deleveraging narrative
✅Auditor/related-party — no flags in reviewed filings
A9 · Quarterly Cadence
screener.in · last 6 quarters
Quarter
Sales ₹Cr
YoY
OP ₹Cr
OPM
PAT ₹Cr
Mar-25
921
+19.9%
136
15%
81
Jun-25
919
+21.2%
115
12%
61
Sep-25
984
+13.4%
132
13%
72
Dec-25
985
+1.1%
147
15%
78
Mar-26
993
+7.8%
181
18%
57
Jun-26
970
+5.5%
134
14%
68
Mar-26 PAT dip is a 52% tax quarter, not operations (OP was the record ₹181 Cr). Single-digit top-line, double-digit margin walk — premiumisation doing the work.
A10 · Valuation
screener.in ratios
Metric
Current
Context
P/E (ttm)
62.5
United Spirits ~55–60×, Radico ~80–90× — sector trades rich
EV/EBITDA (approx)
~31×
on FY26 OP ₹576 Cr + net debt
P/B
10.0×
book ₹62.4
Earnings power
management's +300bps EBITDA path ⇒ ~₹380-400 Cr PAT by FY28 ⇒ ~44× forward if delivered
The multiple already assumes the FY28 margin guidance is met. The asymmetry: guidance delivered = time-correction; guidance missed = de-rating.
A13 · Risks
sorted by severity
HIGH
Working-capital shocks
FY25's −₹676 Cr CFO shows one state-corporation payment cycle can consume a year of profit in cash terms.
Mitigant: watch H1 FY27 cash flow
MEDIUM
State excise policy
every state budget can reprice or re-licence; margins are hostage to regulatory calendars.
Mitigant: geographic spread across 30+ states
MEDIUM
Debt creeping back
₹230 Cr added in FY26 for capex against the deleveraging story.
Mitigant: net-debt/EBITDA each half
MEDIUM
Premiumisation execution
the entire multiple rests on P&A mix reaching ~50% of volume by FY28.
Mitigant: quarterly mix disclosure
LOW
Input costs
grain/ENA prices; backward integration is the hedge under construction.
Mitigant: distillery commissioning timeline
A14 · Milestones to Watch
research tracking signals — not investment signals
P&A volume mix ≥50% — the FY28 target's quarterly checkpoints.
Backward-integration distillery commissioning — the +300bps EBITDA enabler.
H1 FY27 CFO — no repeat of the FY25 working-capital hole.
Net debt trajectory — flat-to-down despite capex.
Maestro JV traction — the luxe/craft optionality.
A15 · Ownership
screener.in
Shareholding table unavailable from the source this run — promoter % renders as a dash rather than an estimate. Post-IPO structure: promoter (Chhabria family) majority with institutional book from the June-2024 listing. Refresh next run.
Part B · Technical Posture
All technical levels are Research Reference Levels from the 25-Jul weekly pipeline (TradingView scanner data) — not buy/sell signals. Regime this week: Pullback in Bear, Swing Confidence 0/3 — every setup is WATCH-ONLY by rule.
Ref Entry
₹620.75
Stop · 1M low
₹577.10
Target
₹711.70
Net R:R
2.05 : 1
Most liquid idea of the week (₹35.8 Cr/day); consumer non-durables cohort held up while the tape fell.
Resting support is the one-month low 7.0% down — outside a 3.94% ADR's daily noise; 10% circuit band verified.
TradingView weekly consensus buy (MA score 0.77); daily neutral. RSI mid-60s — room before harvest.
Sized 651 shares (₹4.04 L, 85% of slot) at 1.00% of capital risk — the largest deployable position of the five.
Research Reference Only — Not an Investment Recommendation · Primaegis Research Pipeline
💡 INVESTMENT CASE SUMMARY
ABDL is a brand-and-distribution franchise whose P&L was held hostage by debt for a decade and released by the 2024 IPO: the same ₹3,500-4,000 Cr revenue base now produces ₹268 Cr of PAT instead of ₹5 Cr. The next leg is margin, not volume — premiumisation (P&A 59.3% of value) plus backward integration guided to +300bps EBITDA by FY28. At 62.5× the market has paid for that guidance in advance; the FY25 working-capital shock (−₹676 Cr CFO) is the reminder of what the industry's receivable cycle can do to cash.
📊 FUNDAMENTAL PILLARS
Structural margin repair
net margin 0.2% → 6.9%; ROCE 20% and compounding as interest falls. Source: A5
Premiumisation with proof
gross margin +277bps in Q1 FY27; P&A mix rising every quarter. Source: A3
Licence-raj moat
pan-India distribution in a state-licensed industry — near-unrepeatable. Source: A1
📈 TECHNICAL POSTURE
Relative strength in a red tape
held its range while the market fell; weekly TA buy (0.77 MA score)
Defined structure
entry at the range, stop under the 1M low (7% — outside daily noise), 2.05:1 net
Deepest liquidity
₹35.8 Cr/day — a full slot fits without friction
Fundamentals vs Technicals
ALIGNED
Steady fundamental repair, steady technical base — the least dramatic and most investable of the five.
⚠️ PRIMARY RISKS TO THESIS
Cash-flow repeat
another FY25-style working-capital year breaks the deleveraging narrative
Guidance slip
the FY28 margin path is fully in the price at 62.5×
Excise shocks
state policy can reprice the whole P&L in a budget line
⚠️ This is an internal, unregulated analytical opinion of Primaegis Research for internal pipeline
use only. It does NOT constitute a SEBI-regulated investment recommendation, research report, or
solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before
making any financial decision.
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This document is a research and educational output only, generated by the Primaegis Research
Investment Analysis Pipeline. Neither Ameya Pimpalgaonkar nor any contributor to this report is a
SEBI registered investment advisor or research analyst. Nothing in this report constitutes
investment advice, a research recommendation, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security,
fund, or financial instrument under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 or any other
applicable law. All financial data is sourced from publicly available disclosures (screener.in,
NSE/BSE filings, company releases). All technical levels are reference levels for research tracking
only. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a SEBI registered investment advisor before
making any financial decision. Generated: 2026-07-25 | Primaegis Research · Not for distribution.