ZFCVINDIA
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
ZFCVINDIA
FY26 → FY30 · 4 years of guidance · ~3.7 years from today₹2,418 today
BEAR
₹2,686
+11%+3% a yr
2.9% a year · 53.8x exit
BASE
₹3,087
+28%+7% a yr
5% a year · 57x exit
BULL
₹4,525
+87%+19% a yr
6.8% a year · 78.1x exit
Where the market has priced it
45x54x today117x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +5.0%, filed +8.2% across 1 quarter(s)
- this company's own median multiple sits 135% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹44.52 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 5% a year, said on the call of 21-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 53.83x / 57x / 78.13x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 24.31x across 38 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)4 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 5%
Sweta Agarwal: I mean I would expect it to be more or less flattish with maybe single-digit small growth for the next year.
Call 21-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 5.0%
filed 8.2%
1 of 4 quarters