VRLLOG
VRL Logistics Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
VRLLOG
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹266 today
BEAR
₹245
-8%
4% a year · 17.4x exit
BASE
₹351
+32%
7% a year · 24.2x exit
BULL
₹649
+144%
9.5% a year · 43.8x exit
Where the market has priced it
15x20x today55x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company's own median multiple sits 54% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹13.54 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 7% a year, said on the call of 22-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 17.36x / 24.23x / 43.78x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 15.78x across 3 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth 7%
Expecting 6% to 7% volume growth in FY27, with EBITDA margins maintained at around 21% plus.
Call 22-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF