VMART
V-Mart Retail Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
VMART
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹779 today
BEAR
₹524
-33%
5.2% a year · 31.9x exit
BASE
₹1,033
+32%
9% a year · 60.7x exit
BULL
₹5,397
+593%
12.2% a year · 308.1x exit
Where the market has priced it
31x50x today653x
management named no year; shown one year out
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 2 years priced this company 31% above its ten-year median (79x vs 61x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 35% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹15.61 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 9% a year, said on the call of 30-Jan-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 31.9x / 60.69x / 308.07x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 7 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 45x across 4 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 9%
So considering a 9% growth, most of your margin expansion should be coming from efficiencies, correct me if I'm wrong, and not just because of leverage.
Call 30-Jan-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF