USHAMART
Usha Martin Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
USHAMART
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹496 today
BEAR
₹224
-55%
16.3% a year · 12.6x exit
BASE
₹473
-5%
28.1% a year · 24.1x exit
BULL
₹551
+11%
38.2% a year · 26.1x exit
Where the market has priced it
1x32x today — outside the range27x
- at 32x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (26x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹15.29 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 28.1% a year, said on the call of 08-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: guided margin x own realised revenue CAGR — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 12.6x / 24.14x / 26.09x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 8 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 24.21x across 15 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 20%volume growth 12%margin 20%
Rajeev Jhawar: And earlier what we have been saying that to be between 18% to 19%, we feel that with the product mix and everything, at least we should be able to look at a minimum of 20% operating margin.
Call 08-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF