ULTRACEMCO
UltraTech Cement Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
ULTRACEMCO
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹11,903 today
BEAR
₹10,646
-11%
7.3% a year · 35.8x exit
BASE
₹12,675
+6%
12.6% a year · 40.6x exit
BULL
₹15,639
+31%
17.1% a year · 48.2x exit
Where the market has priced it
16x43x today56x
management named no year; shown one year out
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company's own median multiple sits 52% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹277.1 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 12.6% a year, said on the call of 23-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 35.81x / 40.62x / 48.18x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 26.78x across 13 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
volume growth 13.1%generic growth 13.1%
Our domestic grey cement volumes growth of 13.1%, I believe will be well ahead of industry's growth, translating directly into market share gains.
Call 23-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF