UGROCAP
Ugro Capital Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
UGROCAP
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹95 today
BEAR
₹148
+55%
13% a year · 10x exit
BASE
₹242
+153%
22.5% a year · 15.1x exit
BULL
₹439
+360%
30.6% a year · 25.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
4x7x today35x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 37 Finance/Rental/Leasing peers
- at 7x its FY26 earnings the stock trades below the bottom of its own ten-year range (10x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 TTM EPS ₹13.1 (universe (TradingView, diluted TTM)) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 22.5% a year, said on the call of 27-Apr-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 10x / 15.06x / 25.68x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 37 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 15.06x across 37 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
roa 3%gnpa 4.5%
The fifth transition to be steady-state annuity-led, largely cash ROA of 3% to 3.5% by FY29, with negligible contribution from co-lending and direct assignment income.
Call 27-Apr-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF