TI
Tilaknagar Industries Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
TI
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹465 today
BEAR
₹13
-97%
0.5% a year · 15.3x exit
BASE
₹20
-96%
0.9% a year · 23.8x exit
BULL
₹289
-38%
1.3% a year · 339.8x exit
Where the market has priced it
1x554x today — outside the range507x
- 4 of 10 filed years were loss-making or near zero — this band describes a recovery, not a settled rating
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +10.0%, filed +155.7% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 3 years priced this company 27% above its ten-year median (30x vs 24x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 554x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (340x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹0.84 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 0.9% a year, said on the call of 19-Feb-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 15.28x / 23.82x / 339.76x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 6 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 25.32x across 5 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
volume growth 11%generic growth 10%
For FY27, we expect a high-single digit to low-double digit volume growth for the combined business, which will be followed by low-double digit volume growth over the next couple of years.
Call 19-Feb-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 10.0%
filed 155.7%
1 of 4 quarters