TCIEXP
TCI Express Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
TCIEXP
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹542 today
BEAR
₹515
-5%
4.7% a year · 23.2x exit
BASE
₹665
+23%
8.1% a year · 29x exit
BULL
₹847
+56%
10.9% a year · 36x exit
Where the market has priced it
22x26x today41x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- multiple band rests on only 4 filed years
- this company's own median multiple sits 82% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹21.2 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 8.1% a year, said on the call of 04-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 23.22x / 29x / 36x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 4 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 15.91x across 6 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 8%margin 10%
So in this quarter, we have given a guidance of around obviously a high single-digit growth, which is around 9%, 10% and we're achieving a 6.5%.
Call 04-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF