TATASTEEL
Tata Steel Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
TATASTEEL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹190 today
BEAR
₹52
-73%
4.7% a year · 5.7x exit
BASE
₹170
-10%
8.2% a year · 18.2x exit
BULL
₹387
+104%
11.1% a year · 40.2x exit
Where the market has priced it
4x22x today56x
- FY26 earnings of Rs 8.65 sit 3x the prior year (Rs 2.74) and 3x the median of the years before it — a discontinuity, not a run-rate this projection can assume continues
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +9.0%, filed +14.3% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 2 years priced this company 115% above its ten-year median (39x vs 18x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹8.65 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 8.2% a year, said on the call of 20-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 5.71x / 18.2x / 40.25x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 8 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 19.52x across 25 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 8–10%
Until two months back, we were expecting at least 8-10% growth in steel demand going forward.
Call 20-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 9.0%
filed 14.3%
1 of 4 quarters