TATACAP
Tata Capital Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
TATACAP
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹365 today
BEAR
₹147
-60%-42% a yr
13.3% a year · 10x exit
BASE
₹260
-29%-18% a yr
23% a year · 15.1x exit
BULL
₹505
+38%+22% a yr
31.3% a year · 25.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
4x32x today35x
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 37 Finance/Rental/Leasing peers
- at 32x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (26x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹11.42 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 23% a year, said on the call of 29-Apr-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 10x / 15.06x / 25.68x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 37 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 15.06x across 37 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 23%
Rajiv Sabharwal: So if you look at our guidance for FY '28, we had given a guidance for FY '28 where we had stated that over the period of FY ‘25 to FY '28, we will grow at 23% to 25%.
Call 29-Apr-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF