SUNDROP
Sundrop Brands Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SUNDROP
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹665 today
BEAR
₹204
-69%-51% a yr
-11.2% a year · 48.3x exit
BASE
₹430
-35%-23% a yr
-8.2% a year · 95.6x exit
BULL
₹708
+6%+4% a yr
-4.7% a year · 146.2x exit
Where the market has priced it
28x125x today163x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 2 years priced this company 43% above its ten-year median (136x vs 96x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 357% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹5.34 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | -8.2% a year, said on the call of 11-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 48.33x / 95.57x / 146.15x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 20.92x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 4%
Our ambition will be to grow at least 4% to 5% higher than where we today are.
Call 11-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF