SPLPETRO
Supreme Petrochem Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SPLPETRO
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹713 today
BEAR
₹261
-63%-45% a yr
5.8% a year · 13.4x exit
BASE
₹607
-15%-9% a yr
10.1% a year · 28.8x exit
BULL
₹911
+28%+16% a yr
13.7% a year · 40.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
8x41x today45x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- at 41x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (40x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹17.41 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 10.1% a year, said on the call of 30-Apr-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 13.38x / 28.79x / 40.49x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 37x across 20 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
volume growth 10%
Rakesh Nayyar: No, I have only one volume number to give, lf normalcy returns by June end, 2nd Quarter onwards things are normal, then we expect that with ABS operational, we should be able to do 8% to 10% volume growth this year.
Call 30-Apr-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF