Sobha Limited

Real Estate Development/ NSE

Compiled

Auto-generated from filings and public channels — no analyst dossier.

If management delivers what it guided

arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target

SOBHA

FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,372 today

BEAR

₹555

-60%

15.6% a year · 26.5x exit

BASE

₹1,438

+5%

27% a year · 62.6x exit

BULL

₹3,918

+186%

36.6% a year · 158.5x exit

Where the market has priced it

5x76x today327x

management named no year; shown one year out

the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
the last 3 years priced this company 116% above its ten-year median (136x vs 63x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
this company's own median multiple sits 112% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own

How these numbers are produced

Earnings base	FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹18.09 (screener)
Guided growth	27% a year, said on the call of 27-Jul-2026 · transcript
Read across as	operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence
Delivery calibration	0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings
Exit multiple	26.54x / 62.63x / 158.51x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years
Filed-industry peers	median 29.49x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input
Arithmetic	base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)¹ × exit multiple

Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.

How to read this

It answers one question. If this management delivers the growth it told its own investors it would, and the market pays what it has historically paid for this company's earnings, where does the arithmetic land? Nothing here is a forecast of the share price.
Three cases, two moving parts. Bear, base and bull vary the delivery — what fraction of guidance managements actually file — and the exit multiple together, because a company that misses its guidance is usually de-rated for missing it. Each case shows the growth rate and the multiple that produced it.
Read the width, not just the middle. A wide gap between bear and bull means the inputs are uncertain, not that the upside is bigger. A narrow range is a more confident statement than a high one.
“Where the market has priced it” puts today's P/E on the company's own historical range. Sitting far below that range is why a scenario can look enormous: the number is then mostly about re-rating, not about delivery, and the board marks those separately.
The bullets underneath are the caveats — a borrowed peer multiple, a thin filed history, an earnings base that carried a one-off. They are the reasons to trust the number less, listed rather than buried.

Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do. The field guide covers the method.

What management said

from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted

generic growth 30%

The last quarter, I mean, like end of the financial year, so we have guided for at least 30% growth in the presales.

Call 27-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF