SMCGLOBAL
SMC Global Securities Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SMCGLOBAL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹81 today
BEAR
₹35
-57%
14.4% a year · 6.3x exit
BASE
₹46
-43%
25% a year · 7.6x exit
BULL
₹68
-16%
34% a year · 10.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
5x17x today — outside the range12x
management named no year; shown one year out
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- at 17x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (10x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 33% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹4.87 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 25% a year, said on the call of 31-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 6.26x / 7.56x / 10.45x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 6 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 11.27x across 9 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 25%
My first question is that the previous guidance had suggested approximately 25% growth in NBFC AUM.
Call 31-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF