SHRIRAMFIN
Shriram Finance Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SHRIRAMFIN
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,047 today
BEAR
₹583
-44%
3.5% a year · 10.6x exit
BASE
₹706
-33%
6% a year · 12.5x exit
BULL
₹967
-8%
8.1% a year · 16.8x exit
Where the market has priced it
6x20x today21x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- at 20x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (17x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹53.28 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 6% a year, said on the call of 27-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 10.58x / 12.5x / 16.78x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 16x across 36 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 15%nim 8.5%
But we are confident that we'll be able to grow more than 15% at least for next quarter.
Call 27-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF