SHADOWFAX
Shadowfax Technologies Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SHADOWFAX
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹243 today
BEAR
₹54
-78%-60% a yr
15.6% a year · 20.4x exit
BASE
₹96
-60%-43% a yr
27% a year · 30.2x exit
BULL
₹197
-19%-12% a yr
36.7% a year · 53.3x exit
Where the market has priced it
2x123x today326x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 21 Packaged Software peers
- at 123x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (53x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹2 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 27% a year, said on the call of 20-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 20.35x / 30.2x / 53.33x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 21 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 30.2x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth 27%
Overall business growth guidance of 27% to 30% year-on-year, hyperlocal growth of 45% to 50% year-on-year, and explicit target of early double-digit EBITDA margins in steady-state (20%-25% EBITDA margins by FY28).
Call 20-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF