SGFIN
SG Finserve Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SGFIN
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹682 today
BEAR
₹202
-70%
17.3% a year · 8.8x exit
BASE
₹283
-59%
30% a year · 11.1x exit
BULL
₹647
-5%
40.8% a year · 23.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
8x35x today46x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 10 Investment Banks/Brokers peers
- at 35x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (24x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹19.56 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 30% a year, said on the call of 18-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 8.8x / 11.11x / 23.51x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 11.11x across 10 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
book growth 25%generic growth 30%
Over a period of three to four years, we plan to grow our AUM around 25% to 30% growth.
Call 18-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF