SFL
Sheela Foam Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SFL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹784 today
BEAR
₹559
-29%
8.7% a year · 35.2x exit
BASE
₹821
+5%
15% a year · 48.9x exit
BULL
₹1,400
+79%
20.4% a year · 79.6x exit
Where the market has priced it
33x54x today85x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company's own median multiple sits 41% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹14.62 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 15% a year, said on the call of 19-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 35.16x / 48.85x / 79.57x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 34.62x across 20 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth 15%
Reaffirmed 15% growth and 15% EBITDA margin targets. Capex guidance adjusted to INR125-150 crores for FY27. Furlenco plans to reach INR500 crores in FY27.
Call 19-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF