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SDBL

Som Distilleries & Breweries Limited

Beverages: Alcoholic/ NSE

Compiled

Auto-generated from filings and public channels — no analyst dossier.

If management delivers what it guided

arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target

SDBL

FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹72 today

BEAR

₹11

-85%

10.4% a year · 21.2x exit

BASE

₹13

-81%

17.9% a year · 25.3x exit

BULL

₹49

-32%

24.4% a year · 87x exit

Where the market has priced it

15x160x today — outside the range154x

at 160x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (87x)
the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast

How these numbers are produced

Earnings base	FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹0.45 (screener)
Guided growth	17.9% a year, said on the call of 05-Jun-2026 · transcript
Read across as	operating: absolute ₹ revenue target — medium confidence
Delivery calibration	0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings
Exit multiple	21.22x / 25.32x / 87x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 8 filed years
Filed-industry peers	median 23.82x across 5 peers — the cross-check, not the input
Arithmetic	base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)¹ × exit multiple

Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.

How to read this

It answers one question. If this management delivers the growth it told its own investors it would, and the market pays what it has historically paid for this company's earnings, where does the arithmetic land? Nothing here is a forecast of the share price.
Three cases, two moving parts. Bear, base and bull vary the delivery — what fraction of guidance managements actually file — and the exit multiple together, because a company that misses its guidance is usually de-rated for missing it. Each case shows the growth rate and the multiple that produced it.
Read the width, not just the middle. A wide gap between bear and bull means the inputs are uncertain, not that the upside is bigger. A narrow range is a more confident statement than a high one.
“Where the market has priced it” puts today's P/E on the company's own historical range. Sitting far below that range is why a scenario can look enormous: the number is then mostly about re-rating, not about delivery, and the board marks those separately.
The bullets underneath are the caveats — a borrowed peer multiple, a thin filed history, an earnings base that carried a one-off. They are the reasons to trust the number less, listed rather than buried.

Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do. The field guide covers the method.

What management said

from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction

implied earnings growth 18%

INR1,400-1,500 crores revenue for FY27, INR120 crores revenue from UP plant (15-20 lakh cases at INR600 per case), and EBITDA margin close to 10% for FY27

Call 05-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF

Coverage

SectorBeverages: Alcoholic

Dossiersnone

Guidanceyes

Scenarioyes

Street chatter

unverified · logged from public channels

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Som Distilleries

CFF Fluid

Rajesh Power

Mention only15 Mar 10:43

SOM DISTILLERIES : WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY STARTS NEW BREWERY OPERATIONS 🍺🏭

Commentary11 Jun 10:01

Note ; AGI Greenpac is a key supplier to the Alco-beverage industry in India, catering to major players including SOM Distilleries & Breweries Ltd.

01 Jun 12:02

Som Distilleries appoints Jitendra Parihar as Company Secretary. #SDBL - 44 seconds ago

AI-curated filing alert · Not investment advice

Management25 Jul 08:41