SBIN
State Bank of India
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SBIN
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,027 today
BEAR
₹830
-19%
7.2% a year · 8.6x exit
BASE
₹1,069
+4%
12.4% a year · 10.5x exit
BULL
₹1,437
+40%
16.9% a year · 13.6x exit
Where the market has priced it
8x11x today978x
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹90.24 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 12.4% a year, said on the call of 15-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | lender: ROA x book growth — high confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 8.58x / 10.54x / 13.63x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 9.41x across 11 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 13%book growth 13%nim 3.03%roa 1%
The momentum is continuing in the current financial year, and we expect credit growth at 13% to 14% and deposits at 11% to 12% for FY27 for the system.
Call 15-May-2026 · bridge confidence high · transcript PDF