SAREGAMA
Saregama India Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
SAREGAMA
FY26 → FY30 · 4 years of guidance · ~3.7 years from today₹523 today
BEAR
₹470
-10%-3% a yr
12.4% a year · 27.5x exit
BASE
₹809
+55%+13% a yr
21.4% a year · 34.7x exit
BULL
₹1,454
+178%+32% a yr
29.1% a year · 48.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
8x49x today61x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹10.74 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 21.4% a year, said on the call of 21-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 27.46x / 34.66x / 48.73x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 28.9x across 6 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)4 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 20–23%
That effect is completely over, which is the reason that it gives us the confidence to give you a guidance of 20-23% growth coming as overall music vertical, which is licensing, artist management and also including the Carvaan business in t
Call 21-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF