REFEX
Refex Industries Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
REFEX
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹303 today
BEAR
₹70
-77%
16.2% a year · 4.1x exit
BASE
₹246
-19%
28.1% a year · 12.9x exit
BULL
₹490
+62%
38.1% a year · 23.9x exit
Where the market has priced it
2x20x today32x
- the last 3 years priced this company 34% above its ten-year median (17x vs 13x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹14.82 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 28.1% a year, said on the call of 02-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: guided margin x own realised revenue CAGR — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 4.06x / 12.94x / 23.91x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 7 filed years |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 12%
Since you said that in the prior con call that we are expecting 11% to 12% EBITDA margin.
Call 02-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF