RADICO
Radico Khaitan Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
RADICO
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹4,341 today
BEAR
₹1,370
-68%
11.5% a year · 27.2x exit
BASE
₹3,269
-25%
20% a year · 60.4x exit
BULL
₹5,090
+17%
27.1% a year · 88.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
16x96x today — outside the range90x
- the last 3 years priced this company 46% above its ten-year median (88x vs 60x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 96x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (89x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 153% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹45.14 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 20% a year, said on the call of 12-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 27.22x / 60.37x / 88.7x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 23.82x across 5 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
volume growth 20%
During FY27, we expect to grow our Prestige & Above portfolio volume by 20% and expect our EBITDA margin to expand by 125 basis points for the full year.
Call 12-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF