POLYCAB
Polycab India Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
POLYCAB
FY26 → FY30 · 4 years of guidance · ~3.7 years from today₹9,106 today
BEAR
₹9,939
+9%+2% a yr
16.8% a year · 30.1x exit
BASE
₹18,902
+108%+22% a yr
29% a year · 38.5x exit
BULL
₹27,118
+198%+35% a yr
39.4% a year · 40.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
14x51x today — outside the range43x
- at 51x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (40x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 57% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹177.48 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 29% a year, said on the call of 22-Jan-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: guided margin x own realised revenue CAGR — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 30.13x / 38.46x / 40.45x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 7 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 24.44x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)4 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
ebitda margin 8%margin 8%
Looking ahead, the annual sustainable operating margin is expected to remain in the high single digits over midto long term.
Call 22-Jan-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF