PNCINFRA
PNC Infratech Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
PNCINFRA
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹246 today
BEAR
₹146
-41%
-23.7% a year · 5.9x exit
BASE
₹301
+22%
-17.5% a year · 11.2x exit
BULL
₹367
+49%
-10.1% a year · 12.6x exit
Where the market has priced it
5x8x today25x
- the last 3 years priced this company 27% below its ten-year median (8x vs 11x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- this company's own median multiple sits 30% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹32.42 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | -17.5% a year, said on the call of 27-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: revenue growth x margin change — high confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 5.9x / 11.24x / 12.6x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 16.16x across 36 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth -17%
Guidance for FY27: 30% revenue growth to INR 6,000 crores with 12% EBITDA margin.
Call 27-May-2026 · bridge confidence high · transcript PDF