PHOENIXLTD
The Phoenix Mills Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
PHOENIXLTD
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,893 today
BEAR
₹866
-54%
5.7% a year · 23.9x exit
BASE
₹1,700
-10%
9.9% a year · 45.2x exit
BULL
₹2,660
+40%
13.5% a year · 68.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
17x55x today229x
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +10.0%, filed +12.8% across 1 quarter(s)
- this company's own median multiple sits 53% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹34.22 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 9.9% a year, said on the call of 30-Apr-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 23.93x / 45.2x / 68.47x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 29.49x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%
We have already guided to a strong double-digit growth from these two mall portfolios that we should see during FY27.
Call 30-Apr-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 10.0%
filed 12.8%
1 of 4 quarters