PCBL
PCBL Chemical Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
PCBL
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹318 today
BEAR
₹55
-83%-65% a yr
4.9% a year · 9.9x exit
BASE
₹101
-68%-50% a yr
8.4% a year · 17.1x exit
BULL
₹268
-16%-10% a yr
11.4% a year · 42.9x exit
Where the market has priced it
4x63x today — outside the range51x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +10.0%, filed +17.0% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 3 years priced this company 116% above its ten-year median (37x vs 17x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 63x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (43x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 54% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹5 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 8.4% a year, said on the call of 07-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 9.95x / 17.09x / 42.86x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 37x across 20 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%
We should see more than double-digit growth in EBITDA as well for next year.
Call 07-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 10.0%
filed 17.0%
1 of 4 quarters