PATANJALI
Patanjali Foods Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
PATANJALI
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹355 today
BEAR
₹343
-3%
2.3% a year · 20.1x exit
BASE
₹602
+70%
4% a year · 34.7x exit
BULL
₹947
+167%
5.4% a year · 53.8x exit
Where the market has priced it
1x21x today66x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 3 years priced this company 44% above its ten-year median (50x vs 35x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- this company's own median multiple sits 66% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹16.68 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 4% a year, said on the call of 05-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 20.09x / 34.7x / 53.82x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 8 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 20.92x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth 4%
For FY27: Edible oil volume growth 3-5%, food business 8-10%, HPC 15%, edible oil margin ~4%, HPC margin 18%+, blended EBITDA growth 12-15%
Call 05-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF