ORIENTCEM
Orient Cement Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
ORIENTCEM
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹137 today
BEAR
₹159
+16%
5.2% a year · 9.2x exit
BASE
₹308
+126%
8.9% a year · 17.2x exit
BULL
₹1,137
+732%
12.1% a year · 61.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
8x8x today77x
- FY26 earnings of Rs 16.44 sit 4x the prior year (Rs 4.45) and 4x the median of the years before it — a discontinuity, not a run-rate this projection can assume continues
- the FY26 base of Rs 16.44 is 61% above the Rs 10.19 trailing twelve months — that year carried something the last four quarters did not
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +9.0%, filed -30.3% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 3 years priced this company 45% above its ten-year median (25x vs 17x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 8x its FY26 earnings the stock trades below the bottom of its own ten-year range (9x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 57% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹16.44 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 8.9% a year, said on the call of 10-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 9.19x / 17.22x / 61.66x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 40.14x across 13 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 9%
And here, my question is that if we are seeing some pressure on volumes because for FY '27, we have given a guidance of 80 million tonnes, which is roughly a growth of 9% to 10% against the backdrop that we are expecting a much softer indus
Call 10-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 9.0%
filed -30.3%
1 of 4 quarters