Northern Arc Capital Limited

Finance/Rental/Leasing/ NSE

Compiled

Auto-generated from filings and public channels — no analyst dossier.

If management delivers what it guided

arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target

NORTHARC

FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹287 today

BEAR

₹314

+9%

24.6% a year · 10x exit

BASE

₹539

+88%

42.5% a year · 15.1x exit

BULL

₹1,018

+255%

57.8% a year · 25.7x exit

Where the market has priced it

4x11x today35x

this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 37 Finance/Rental/Leasing peers
the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast

How these numbers are produced

Earnings base	FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹25.13 (screener)
Guided growth	42.5% a year, said on the call of 14-May-2026 · transcript
Read across as	lender: ROA x book growth — high confidence
Delivery calibration	0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings
Exit multiple	10x / 15.06x / 25.68x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 37 filed years
Filed-industry peers	median 15.06x across 37 peers — the cross-check, not the input
Arithmetic	base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)¹ × exit multiple

Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.

How to read this

It answers one question. If this management delivers the growth it told its own investors it would, and the market pays what it has historically paid for this company's earnings, where does the arithmetic land? Nothing here is a forecast of the share price.
Three cases, two moving parts. Bear, base and bull vary the delivery — what fraction of guidance managements actually file — and the exit multiple together, because a company that misses its guidance is usually de-rated for missing it. Each case shows the growth rate and the multiple that produced it.
Read the width, not just the middle. A wide gap between bear and bull means the inputs are uncertain, not that the upside is bigger. A narrow range is a more confident statement than a high one.
“Where the market has priced it” puts today's P/E on the company's own historical range. Sitting far below that range is why a scenario can look enormous: the number is then mostly about re-rating, not about delivery, and the board marks those separately.
The bullets underneath are the caveats — a borrowed peer multiple, a thin filed history, an earnings base that carried a one-off. They are the reasons to trust the number less, listed rather than buried.

Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do. The field guide covers the method.

What management said

from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction

nim 5.6%credit cost 2.8%

This shift has given us almost 380 basis points of expansion in our net interest margin from 5.6% to 9.4% in FY '26.

Call 14-May-2026 · bridge confidence high · transcript PDF

Coverage

SectorFinance/Rental/Leasing

Dossiersnone

Guidanceyes

Scenarioyes

Street chatter

unverified · logged from public channels

Northern Arc Capital | FY26 Annual Report Insights

Management Philosophy

Prioritizes long-term sustainability.

Growth balanced with disciplined risk.

Focus on building enduring institution.

Governance remains a strategic pillar.

Emphasis on responsible compounding.

Business Strategy

Three pillars: **Strengthen, G

Commentary26 Jul 14:28

Steel, NHPC, JSW Cement, NIIT Learning Systems, JSW Energy, Nippon Life India Asset Management, JSW Steel, NOCIL, Jubilant Pharmova, Northern Arc Capital, Juniper Hotels, Nuvoco Vistas Corporation, Kalpataru Projects International, Page Industries, Karnataka Bank, PCBL Chemical, KEI Industries, PDS, KFin Technologies, Petronet LNG, Kilb

Mention only01 Jun 12:03

of Larak Island — Iran claimed this as evidence that the US-preferred Oman southern route is dangerous and vessels should use Iran's northern route, a tactical assertion of Hormuz control framing.

TOLLS IN MID-AUGUST — Iran has publicly committed to imposing "service fees" (tolls) on shipping once the 60-day toll-free window expires a

Motilal Oswal sees 32% UPSIDE in Northern Arc Capital- Steady quarter; D2C momentum strengthens growth outlook

Guidance29 Jul 10:45