NCC
NCC Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
NCC
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹141 today
BEAR
₹130
-8%
17% a year · 10.4x exit
BASE
₹197
+40%
29.4% a year · 14.2x exit
BULL
₹306
+117%
40% a year · 20.3x exit
Where the market has priced it
3x13x today144x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹10.76 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 29.4% a year, said on the call of 20-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 10.36x / 14.16x / 20.28x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 30%
I know you can grow at 30%, 40% maybe next year, but at least you can guide 10% or 15% or 20%, some number to start with where you are at least confident you can grow.
Call 20-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF