NATCOPHARM
Natco Pharma Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
NATCOPHARM
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹917 today
BEAR
₹1,029
+12%+7% a yr
6% a year · 11.6x exit
BASE
₹1,336
+46%+25% a yr
10.5% a year · 13.8x exit
BULL
₹3,104
+238%+108% a yr
14.2% a year · 30x exit
Where the market has priced it
8x12x today83x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 54% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹79.2 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 10.5% a year, said on the call of 04-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 11.55x / 13.82x / 30x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 30.27x across 38 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%
Canada, we are expecting will grow around 10% to 15%.
Call 04-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF