MONTECARLO
Monte Carlo Fashions Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
MONTECARLO
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹523 today
BEAR
₹497
-5%
9.2% a year · 8.4x exit
BASE
₹614
+18%
16% a year · 9.8x exit
BULL
₹996
+90%
21.7% a year · 15.2x exit
Where the market has priced it
5x10x today21x
management named no year; shown one year out
- the last 3 years priced this company 42% above its ten-year median (14x vs 10x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- this company's own median multiple sits 68% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹53.89 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 16% a year, said on the call of 23-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: revenue growth, margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 8.45x / 9.83x / 15.18x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 30.57x across 16 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
revenue growth 16%generic growth 16%
We are pleased to share that the company has successfully achieved its stated guidance of financial 126 delivering a revenue growth of 16%, along with EBITDA achieved of 20%.
Call 23-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF