If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
MOBAVENUE
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹308 today
BEAR
₹78
-75%
17.3% a year · 20.4x exit
BASE
₹128
-58%
30% a year · 30.2x exit
BULL
₹245
-20%
40.8% a year · 53.3x exit
Where the market has priced it
2x94x today326x
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 21 Packaged Software peers
- at 94x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (53x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 TTM EPS ₹3.27 (universe (TradingView, diluted TTM)) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 30% a year, said on the call of 01-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: revenue growth, margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 20.35x / 30.2x / 53.33x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 21 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 30.2x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 20%revenue growth 30%margin 20%generic growth 30%
Our long-term operating philosophy continues to be anchored around what we call, and we introduced in the last call as Rule of 50, targeting a sustained annual revenue growth of over 30% along with EBITDA margin profile of 20% and above.
Call 01-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF