MMFL
MM Forgings Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
MMFL
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹547 today
BEAR
₹386
-29%-19% a yr
11.6% a year · 13.1x exit
BASE
₹551
+1%+0% a yr
20.2% a year · 16.2x exit
BULL
₹706
+29%+17% a yr
27.4% a year · 18.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
9x23x today25x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- at 23x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (18x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 33% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹23.58 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 20.2% a year, said on the call of 09-Mar-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 13.14x / 16.19x / 18.44x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 24.21x across 15 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 20%
I think we should be able to easily do 20% growth in the next coming year.
Call 09-Mar-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF