MGSL
Matrix Geo Solutions Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
MGSL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹76 today
BEAR
₹111
+46%
28.9% a year · 12.5x exit
BASE
₹166
+118%
50% a year · 16x exit
BULL
₹236
+211%
68% a year · 20.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
4x11x today43x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 37 Engineering & Construction peers
- at 11x its FY26 earnings the stock trades below the bottom of its own ten-year range (12x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹6.9 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 50% a year, said on the call of 06-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 12.46x / 16x / 20.36x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 37 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 16x across 37 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 50%
And now what we are looking at is that with the same growth, less than that even, with the CAGR of 50%, we are targeting INR 500 crores within the next five years with the help of the growth strategy and majorly with our infrastructure plat
Call 06-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF