MGL
Mahanagar Gas Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
MGL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,120 today
BEAR
₹976
-13%
5.8% a year · 10.8x exit
BASE
₹1,184
+6%
10% a year · 12.6x exit
BULL
₹1,802
+61%
13.6% a year · 18.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
10x13x today22x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +10.0%, filed +14.0% across 1 quarter(s)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹85.73 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 10% a year, said on the call of 14-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 10.76x / 12.56x / 18.5x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 11.44x across 5 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%
Amit Murarka: So, when you say that you expect more than 10% growth in FY27, I think you also said that industrial is down 20%.
Call 14-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 10.0%
filed 14.0%
1 of 4 quarters