LUPIN
Lupin Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
LUPIN
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹2,415 today
BEAR
₹2,773
+15%
2.8% a year · 23.1x exit
BASE
₹4,468
+85%
4.9% a year · 36.5x exit
BULL
₹7,521
+211%
6.6% a year · 60.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
20x21x today132x
- the last 3 years priced this company 26% below its ten-year median (27x vs 37x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 21x its FY26 earnings the stock trades below the bottom of its own ten-year range (23x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 80% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹116.65 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 4.9% a year, said on the call of 14-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: revenue growth, margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 23.12x / 36.53x / 60.49x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 8 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 20.34x across 3 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
revenue growth 5%generic growth 5%margin 27%
As mentioned in our earlier interactions, we expect to grow our top line highsingle digits with margins at around 25% in FY27, despite increased headwinds from an uncertain geopolitical environment.
Call 14-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF