If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
LUMAXTECH
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹1,568 today
BEAR
₹917
-42%-28% a yr
11.6% a year · 18x exit
BASE
₹1,282
-18%-11% a yr
20% a year · 21.8x exit
BULL
₹2,020
+29%+16% a yr
27.2% a year · 30.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
6x38x today39x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- at 38x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (31x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹40.91 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 20% a year, said on the call of 05-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 18x / 21.77x / 30.52x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 25.12x across 38 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
margin 14.5%
The Company also crossed the INR 700 crore mark for EBITDA to reach record EBITDA of INR 705 crore with a healthy margin of 14.5% along with a record PAT of INR 337 crore.
Call 05-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF