LODHA
Lodha Developers Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
LODHA
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,244 today
BEAR
₹961
-23%
10.3% a year · 25.4x exit
BASE
₹1,822
+46%
17.8% a year · 45x exit
BULL
₹3,449
+177%
24.2% a year · 80.9x exit
Where the market has priced it
20x36x today92x
management named no year; shown one year out
- this company's own median multiple sits 53% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹34.32 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 17.8% a year, said on the call of 30-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: PAT growth guided directly — high confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 25.38x / 45x / 80.9x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 5 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 29.49x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
pat growth 20%generic growth 20%
Our commitment of 20% PAT growth is an annual guidance, not a quarterly one.
Call 30-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence high · transcript PDF