If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
KRN
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,174 today
BEAR
₹322
-73%
47.7% a year · 17.7x exit
BASE
₹633
-46%
82.5% a year · 28.2x exit
BULL
₹1,590
+35%
112.2% a year · 61x exit
Where the market has priced it
7x96x today — outside the range95x
management named no year; shown one year out
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 31 Industrial Machinery peers
- at 96x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (61x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 TTM EPS ₹12.29 (universe (TradingView, diluted TTM)) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 82.5% a year, said on the call of 20-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 17.71x / 28.23x / 61x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 31 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 28.23x across 31 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 90%
Of course, in fin and tube especially we will be expecting I think more than 80% or 90% growth especially from data center only.
Call 20-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF