JWL
Jupiter Wagons Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
JWL
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹259 today
BEAR
₹123
-53%-36% a yr
48.8% a year · 13.9x exit
BASE
₹572
+121%+61% a yr
84.4% a year · 42x exit
BULL
₹1,070
+313%+135% a yr
114.7% a year · 58x exit
Where the market has priced it
3x65x today — outside the range64x
- at 65x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (58x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 60% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹4 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 84.4% a year, said on the call of 04-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: guided margin x own realised revenue CAGR — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 13.87x / 42x / 58x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 6 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 26.22x across 14 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 15%
And as I mentioned, long term, by 2030, we expect the company to be at about INR10,000 crore of revenue with at least minimum 15% EBITDA margins.
Call 04-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF