JUBLPHARMA
Jubilant Pharmova Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
JUBLPHARMA
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹935 today
BEAR
₹433
-54%-37% a yr
6.4% a year · 15.3x exit
BASE
₹581
-38%-25% a yr
11.1% a year · 18.8x exit
BULL
₹2,056
+120%+61% a yr
15.1% a year · 62x exit
Where the market has priced it
5x37x today119x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 3 years priced this company 74% above its ten-year median (33x vs 19x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- this company's own median multiple sits 38% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹25 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 11.1% a year, said on the call of 27-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 15.29x / 18.81x / 62x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 30.27x across 38 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 11%
Harsher Singh: Look, we expect that the business will grow in the sort of low double digits and we expect margins to remain in the 38% to 40% range.
Call 27-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF