ICEMAKE
Ice Make Refrigeration Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
ICEMAKE
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹831 today
BEAR
₹401
-52%-36% a yr
73.7% a year · 19.3x exit
BASE
₹949
+14%+8% a yr
127.6% a year · 26.6x exit
BULL
₹4,003
+382%+158% a yr
173.4% a year · 77.6x exit
Where the market has priced it
8x120x today — outside the range99x
- the last 3 years priced this company 122% above its ten-year median (59x vs 27x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 120x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (78x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹6.9 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 127.6% a year, said on the call of 10-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: revenue growth x margin change — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 19.26x / 26.55x / 77.64x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 31x across 30 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 7–8%margin 7–8%revenue growth 25–30%generic growth 25–30%
Participant In earlier quarters, management had guided for an EBITDA margin of around 7–8%.
Call 10-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF