HINDALCO
Hindalco Industries Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
HINDALCO
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹974 today
BEAR
₹555
-43%
4% a year · 8.9x exit
BASE
₹595
-39%
6.9% a year · 9.3x exit
BULL
₹1,055
+8%
9.4% a year · 16.2x exit
Where the market has priced it
5x16x today23x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 3 years priced this company 35% above its ten-year median (13x vs 9x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 16x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (16x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 46% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹59.59 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 6.9% a year, said on the call of 26-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 8.95x / 9.34x / 16.18x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 17.2x across 11 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 6.9%
Against this backdrop, the RBI expects a GDP growth of 6.9% in FY27.
Call 26-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF