HEROMOTOCO
Hero MotoCorp Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
HEROMOTOCO
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹5,386 today
BEAR
₹5,626
+4%
17.1% a year · 16.8x exit
BASE
₹6,633
+23%
29.5% a year · 17.9x exit
BULL
₹8,044
+49%
40.1% a year · 20x exit
Where the market has priced it
9x19x today25x
- this company's own median multiple sits 38% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹287 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 29.5% a year, said on the call of 11-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: guided margin x own realised revenue CAGR — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 16.75x / 17.85x / 20x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 28.77x across 8 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
margin 14%
We remain committed to our medium-term margin guidance of 14% to 16%.
Call 11-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF